After yesterday's item speculating on a possible split in Hamas, and then posting an additional expanded version on my christian- democratic general political blog refWrite; late into the nite, I happened upon a recent New York Times report by Greg Myre, "Hamas Is Silent on Leaders as the Power Tilts to Gaza" (Jan3,2k6). The headline and the following sentence deep in Myre's text seem to support the hypothesis of my speculation. But the whole article helps us understand why this "tilt" from the influence of WestBank Hamas may now be shifting to the influence on Gaza Hamas in what may be regarded as the Hamas heartland.
First, the sentence that brawt me up short. "The Hamas election victory is also shifting the center of gravity for Palestinian politics from the West Bank to Gaza."
Ponder that. Now, the gist of the article. It offers a few profiles of the Hamas leaders, scattered here and there in the Myre's article, which I have gathered and tried to present a bit more systematically below.
Khaled Meshal is the top overall Hamas leader; he's kept clear of Israeli terminators by living in Damascus, Syria; but is very likely now in Cairo meeting with the Gazan Hamas members of the new Palestinian Legislative Council.
Mr. Meshal, who travels throughout the Arab world, will not be part of the new government since he is abroad, but will exert considerable influence even from afar.
UPDATE (Jan8,2k6): Mr Meshaal, who was briefly imprisoned [in Jordan], was expelled [from that country] with three other Hamas representatives - Izzat al-Rushuq, Ibrahim Ghosheh and Musa Abu Marzuq - in August 1999. The three Hamas leaders just mentioned, if still alive, probably are located in Damascus, southern Lebanon, or other Arab centers; but are unlikely to be in Palestine. [This link gives a thoro BBC Profile of Meshal, which I just found. - P]
main article & Myre quote [NYT] continued:
There is also speculation that Mr. Meshal, who turns 50 this year, may try to visit Gaza, since the Palestinians now control its southern border with Egypt. But Israel says its military will still pursue wanted Palestinians despite having withdrawn from Gaza, and Mr. Meshal could become a target if he enters it. ...[A] a strict ideologue[, h]e routinely calls for violent confrontation with Israel, even during the past year, while Hamas has largely abided by a truce and some Hamas leaders have flirted with the notion of an extended cease-fire.
"Most of Hamas's top echelon is based in Gaza, and always has been."
Ismail Haniya, 42, "eloquent" ... "commands the most respect" in Gaza. He "headed the candidate list of the Hamas forces put forward in the recent election. He's "regarded as the most pragmatic of the senior leaders. He is considered likely to land a top government post, possibly even the prime minister's job." And will be named or not, most likely by Damascus-based Khaled Meshal.
Mr. Haniya held a news conference on Monday to announce that Hamas wanted to work with the international community and urge Western countries not to cut off financial assistance to the Palestinians.Despite Haniya's popular standing, he may be considered too soft by the Khaled Meshal and other exiles in faraway Damascus, Syria, and in Lebanon where missiles are shot over the border into Israel - presumably by Hamas and its Iranian-funded allies, Hizbullah."We are ready to cooperate with the free world," Mr. Haniya said. "We are asking you to be open-minded and responsible in dealing with the results of this election."
Mr. Haniya appears to have a strong bond with ordinary supporters, though his tone tends to be a bit less strident than other leaders, particularly those abroad.
So far, Hamas has refused to say who will fill which posts. And because Hamas has previously boycotted the Palestinian Authority, group leaders have no formal experience in government.Mahmoud Zahar, MD, is a practicing surgeon who lives and works in Gaza; he's about 60 years old and maintains a low profile (since the Israelis have terminated more visible leaders on several occasions).There has been speculation among political analysts that Hamas may install little-known technocrats in the government rather than its top-tier leadership. However, a number of Hamas figures are sure to play central roles regardless of whether they hold government positions.
Israel has decimated and restricted Hamas operations and recruiting on the West Bank. As reported yesterday, WestBank Hamas has tended to work closely with leadership of the Fatah militants.
The Israeli military response in the West Bank has been even more comprehensive [than in Gaza]. Most of the prominent Hamas leaders there have been killed or arrested in recent years. Still, the group's electoral performance in the West Bank was nearly as strong as in Gaza, a poorer, more religious territory that always has been the Hamas stronghold.This is not the complete picture that I'm still looking for, but it's the best I could find so far. Since NYT rapidly removes its articles from free public access, I felt I should quote reporter Myre at greater length than usual. Our lives may depend upon understanding Hamas, which triggered the backlash against the ignominious cartoons out of Europe, and then used its Damascus connections to repeat the very organized outrage perpetrated there as well. Hamas, Iran, Syria. That's a real axis, and knowing Hamas better is incumbent on all of us. Posted by Politicarp at February 7, 2006 08:11 PM | TrackBackThe Hamas election victory is also shifting the center of gravity for Palestinian politics from the West Bank to Gaza.
After the Palestinian Authority was established in 1994, the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat divided his time between a seaside compound in Gaza City and his offices in the West Bank town of Ramallah.
But Israel confined Mr. Arafat to his Ramallah compound from 2001 until shortly before his death in November 2004, and during this time Palestinian political activity took place almost entirely in the West Bank. But with most Hamas leaders based in Gaza, and Israel barring them from traveling to the West Bank, much of the focus is expected to move here.