Another reason to love Yushchenko. . .

President Yushchenko just spoke before the Council of Europe. Here's what he had to say about his disfigurement:

"Frankly, I can't get used to this face, and I don't think I ever will get used to it. . . But, we are men and we don't make a big deal over our scars."

A good excuse for another gratuitous Ed Rooney reference: "Why Ed, you sounded just like Dirty Harry just then."

Gotta love him.

What are the odds of Yulia being confirmed?

Now that President Yushchenko has appointed Yulia as acting PM, the Parliament still needs to approve her.

The prospects look very good. Only a simple majority of 226 votes is needed. Nasha Ukraina has 100, Yulia's Party 19, Center has 14. Soyuz came out for her today -- 16 more. Moroz and the Socialists are almost sure to back her -- add in another 20. The Agrarians -- 32. Democratic Initiatives adds 13 more.

Today Lytvyn, the Parliamentary Speaker, announced that he's backing Tymoshenko. This brings in the Democratic Ukraine faction with 14 votes. Lytvyn's opinion is also respected among the 41 independent MPs. These can be expected, at least in part, to back Yulia. No independent is eager to make enemies at this point.

There may be a few defections from the above parties, but I think that will be more than offset by aisle-crossers from the oligarch parties. The Orange coalition has shown great unity since the election, while the oligarch parties are fissuring all over the place. Look especially for Social-Dem crossovers.

At least according to my quick thumbnail math, Yulia's chances look very good.

Photo: AFP

Ukraine Update -- 25 January

We all had high expectations as Yushchenko came into office. I sometimes worried if he could live up to them. But already he's proving to be that rarest of politicians -- one who does what he promised to do.

He promised to make Ukraine more open and democratic. It's gone under-reported in the West, but Yushchenko has just scrapped the Presidential Administration. Under Medvedchuk, the Admin was key to Kuchma's control of Ukrainian life. In its place will now be a Secretariat. While I don't yet have all the details, word is that this system will be much less geared toward social control.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko was appointed secretary of the the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). He's going to follow through on another Yushchenko promise, and overhaul Ukraine's massive military and security structures. Another win for a free society. . .

Lastly, he's appointed nasha Yulia as Prime Minister, as he promised during the campaign. This was done despite foreign pressure to appoint a "moderate" (as if moderation in the face of corruption is a virtue.) If we had any doubts he might compromise away his victory, this appointment obliterates them. While lacking the erudition and gamine beauty of Yanukovych, Tymoshenko will be implacable in the fight for economic and social reform.

These appointments also point up Yushchenko's adroitness as a politician -- Zinchenko, Poroshenko and Tymoshenko were all rivals for the PM job. Yushchenko found acceptable positions for each of them, and announced the appointments the same day. Smart.

Other News:

- The General Prosecutor's office is investigating 139 violations of Ukrainian election laws during the previous campaign.

- Yushchenko is talking about reversing the Odessa-Brody pipeline. This is too complicated and lengthy to go into here, do a Google search for background on the issue.

- The last tent has been taken down on Kreshatik Street. While time, it's a little melancholy to see the tent city gone.

a good translation of Yushchenko's inaugural address

AussieGirl, over at Ultima Thule, spent the day translating the text of Yushchenko's address into good, American English. What she says about the beauty of the Ukrainian language is absolutely true -- it's incredibly melodic and kind to the ear. At the church I attend, most of us are Russian speakers, but most of the songs we sing are in Ukrainian. It's lovely.

Be sure also to check out her translation note.

Note to Western Journos -- Ukraine is not a Russian Province

Practically every Western article I read on Yulia's ascension to Prime Minister had a headline something like this:

"Yushchenko Names Kremlin Antagonist As PM"

It's like the past two months never happened. These fools continue to view Ukraine only through the prism of Russia. So here's a news flash for them -- Ukraine has 48 million people, making it one of the larger countries in Europe. It's not an appendage of Russia. To borrow a line from Forrest Gump -- "It's this whole other country." LEARN that.

The real news story is that Yushchenko picked the most uncompromising and radical of the reformers in his potential PM stable.

UNRELATED NOTE:

A telling quote from Putin --

"You, of course, know well that Russia has never worked in an underhanded way in the post-Soviet space. We only did what was asked of us by the Ukrainian government in power. We only hope that we can have the same friendly relationship with you."

It's all so clear now! Russia only undermines democracy when asked to do so by the democratically-elected government of said country. And now he's offered to do the same for Yushchenko. Awfully sporting of him, really.

At last -- President Yushchenko!

Number one son took a spill from the jungle gym this morning, and instead of getting to the inauguration early I spent the time playing doctor (he's okay now.) By the time I got downtown, it was already a madhouse. I had hoped to score shots from the hill overlooking the Square, but even the magic of my press badge failed against the Ministry's security cordon. I was able to snap these shots from over near Tchaikovsky Conservatory.

The photos don't really capture it, but the press of people was amazing. There were times when the crowd would shift and you would literally be taken off your feet. Even more amazing was that everyone was smiling, despite having their ribs compacted. It's been the same throughout the Revolution.

UPDATE: Connard has posted some GREAT inauguration photos over on his blog. Check them out. Definitely worthy of linkage by you Orange fans out there. . :-)

The orange thing in the middle was part of the backdrop for the stage. The black line of people in front of the orange smudge are part of the officiating party.

You'll see a large open space, directly in front of the Conservatory, leading up to the area around the statue. It's been roped off for the inauguration. In one of those fun coincidences of history, those are the exact areas we roped off when PORA set up the first stage of the tent city at the very beginning of the Revolution. . .

The pillars of the Conservatory were wrapped in orange, and the statue still flies the Yushchenko flag some intrepid Orange person put up there during the first days of the Revolution.

Six thousand militiamen were called out to secure the event. Many were turned out in dress uniform, like this trooper. It was nice to know which side the Ministry was on, for once.

After Yushchenko's speech they launched a huge flight of orange balloons into the air. It's done. What we've known all along is now official -- Yushchenko is the rightful and legitimate president of Ukraine. Thank God.

Ukraine Update -- 24 January

- Yushchenko's people are joining with the "Center" Party to form a reconstituted "Our Ukraine" Party. They've issued a declaration that states that they're a party which was born in Independence Square; a party of the common man; and that their strength will come from constant dialogue with the people. So far as I know, this will put the Our Ukraine faction at 114 seats even without factoring in allies.

Some have been worried because the Reform and Order party has made a move to steal the Our Ukraine name. My understanding is that R&O will also be joining this new party in the future, so it won't be a problem.

- A fun historical note: during Yanukovych's last court battle, his spokesman, Shufrych, accused Yushchenko of using hypnosis and "zombiefication" to create a "virtual revolutionary state." He's been hanging out with Ludmilla too much. . .

- Poor Shufrych was beaten by his own allies yesterday at the Yanukovych tents on Independence Square. He approached the tents and was hit in the head by an old man with a pole. Other people started throwing things at him. The militia eventually intervened.

- The Telegraph has some highlights from Yushchenko's speech. This struck me: "This was a victory of freedom over tyranny. A victory of law over lawlessness. We have a single aim - a democratic and prosperous Ukraine. . . Ukraine will not be a buffer zone or a testing ground for anyone else." Amen.

- Yushchenko flies today to Moscow to meet with Putin and the ever-hypocritical Patriarch Alexey II. As he demonstrated many times during the Revolution, Yushchenko is prudent. Hopefully this will both shore things up with Putin and demonstrate to the Easterners that he isn't a wild-eyed Russophobe.

- The Interior Ministry is reporting 300,000 people at the festivities today, with no breaches of the peace. Amazing.

- There's a good chance Yushchenko will announce his Prime Minister pick tomorrow. At present, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Zinchenko and Kinakh are all in the running. All seem to be decent options.

- Powell delivered an invitation to President Yushchenko (how nice it is to type this finally!) from President Bush, inviting him to visit the States.

- Yushchenko's people are wisely sending out emails to young professionals both here in Ukraine and to those living abroad. They're seeking out young, talented people as they staff the new government. For the record, this is another Yushchenko campaign promise kept.

Photoblogging -- Jan 22

My yellow-haired monkeys got a care package from the States. Thanks Carol!

The former Lenin Museum is playing host to a lot of the inaguration festivities tomorrow. I'm registered for press access (no dice on the actual inaguration itself, they weren't giving anyone access from what I could see.)

Here's a view of the inaguration press center. I'll be able to update from there tomorrow.

My new favorite cafe in Kiev -- Passage. Great desserts, good coffee, French-service, and the whole place is done in Art Nouveau style. The walls are even decorated with Mucha prints.

Ukraine Update -- Jan 21st

- We're having an inaguration! It's hard to believe, but I'll be talking about President Yushchenko after this Sunday. I'll be sure to post pictures from the Square that evening.

- Kuchma, Lukashenko and Putin all congratulated Yushchenko on his victory today. Deep-kissing a garbage disposal would likely have been less painful for them. . .

- Yanukovych seems to have abandoned all hope of a Blue Revolution. In place of Yanukovych, Vitrenko and the Progressive Socialists have been rousing most of the rabble lately. Now Yanukovych has recognized the decision of the Supreme Court and even called for the mini-tent cities to be taken down.

- Contrary to the expectations of some analysts, Yanukovych is positioning himself to be the primary leader of the Opposition. He's talking of winning the 2006 elections and forming a government. I'd held out hope he'd grow a Unabomber beard and start teaching classes at Columbia instead.

- Yanukovych summarized the Orange Revolution by saying that the "right of force defeated the force of right." I could summarize his speech by saying that the "shameful nonsense defeated the sense of shame."

- Leonid Kravchuk, former president and the head of the Social-Dems (an oligarch party also led by Medvedchuk) has promised to support Yushchenko. While opportunistic as can be, it's another sign that old allies are fracturing.

- The Communists are forming a "Leftist Front" with the Progressive Socs and others. They've sworn not to join the Orange Coalition. No doubt their absence will be sorely felt. Right.

- The current composition of the Parliament (reflecting MAJOR shifts in recent weeks):

1. Our Ukraine -- 100
2. Regions Party -- 56
3. Communist Party -- 53
4. Social Dems -- 28
5. Workers&People's Dems--15
6. People's Agrarian Party -- 32
7. Socialists -- 20
8. Tymoshenko Bloc -- 19
9. Union Party -- 16
10. Center Party -- 14
11. United Ukraine -- 22
12. Democratic Initiatives -- 13
13. Democratic Ukraine -- 14
14. Independent MPs -- 41

Ukraine update -- Jan 20

- The Guardian is reporting that Yushchenko plans to appear before the European Parliament on Tuesday. He’ll be presenting a plan to integrate Ukraine into the EU. He’ll be presenting a five-year plan to bring Ukraine closer to Europe. Lt’s hope this one works better than previous 5 Year Plans in this part of the world. . . This fits in with the agenda we were discussing on an earlier thread here.

- Poroshenko, a leader from the Orange Bloc, confirmed another aspect of the agenda that I mentioned – revisiting corrupt privatization schemes.

- The two newspapers responsible for publishing the official election results – Golos Ukraini and Uryadovoi Kurer are now printed. In one of those constitutional idiosyncrasies that could only exist in Ukraine, once they’re published it seems that they can’t be rescinded even by the Supreme Court. This publishing allows the Parliament to set a date for the inauguration. No firm word on when, but Saturday seems likeliest. With this printing, the campaign is now officially over.

- The EU is seriously considering granting Ukraine “market economy” status, which would help it avoid the brunt of the EU’s anti-dumping laws on things like steel. This would be a huge boost for Donetsk and Lugansk, which depend on steel exports. It’s a measure of the brainwashing of those regions’ residents that they so despise the man making this possible, while adoring Yanukovych, who would have kept the country a pariah. They remind me of alcoholics, fist-fighting anyone who tries to take away their poison of choice.

- Yanukovych’s people have put up seven tents and roped off 15 square meters in Lenin Square in Simferopol, Crimea and declared it a “Yushchenko-Free Zone.” That’s fine, we have the rest of the country.

- Shufrych, a representative for Yanukovych’s, announced today that their Swiss lawyers are taking the case to the European Court. In Shufrych’s opinion, the Ukrainian Supreme Court has already made its decision.

- Small-scale tent villages have gone up in the squares of several eastern Ukrainian cities. A partial list includes Simferopol, Odessa, Kherson, Donetsk and Mariupol. My gut is still that this won’t go very far. But we don’t know yet how mucb impact the actual inauguration of Yushchenko will have on people in the east. They really do fear and hate him. Plus, very little that’s happened since November has been predictable. So we’ll see.

- Polish political experts are saying that Ukraine might not pull out its troops as quickly as some expect. The Polish Minster of Defense says that a Ukrainian pull-out may have implications for Polish-Ukrainian relations, and that the Poles are in talks with Yushchenko about that fact.

- Independent MP Volkov has come out in favor of Tymoshenko, and said that it would be a huge mistake for Yushchenko to nominate anyone else for PM. Additionally, 41 deputies from Dnepropetrovsk also announced their support for Yulia yesterday.

- The Russian Foreign Minister congratulated Yushchenko on his victory on behalf of the Russian Federation. His enthusiasm was almost palpable. Or something.

Yushchenko's Reform Agenda

As Greg has pointed out, the Western media regularly calls Yushchenko a "reformist", but then neglects details about reform in favor of practical political events. I haven't found a concise, English-language summary of his agenda, so I thought I'd write an overview based on what I've learned along the way.

If we had to summarize his focus in one word, it would be "corruption." It's pandemic. Transparency Int'l rated us the third most corrupt country on their list a few years ago. It begins in the presidential office, and filters down to the lowest citizen. I don't know anyone who has only one lease -- everyone has a real one and one for the tax office stating a fraction of the real rent. Students pay not only for grades, but even to get into classes. Similar examples could be found in every corner of political and economic life here in Ukraine.

Some of the items on his anti-corruption agenda:

1. Replacing 2,000 government bureaucrats with new, fresh people with clean records.

2. Stonger, enforced anti-corruption laws to break the power of the oligarchs.

3. An overhaul of the privatization system to allow open bidding and to prevent a handful of clans from corruptly buying up everything.

4. Possibly revisiting previous privatizations which were ridiculously corrupt.

5. Changes in the tax code to encourage businesses to become transparent and actually pay their taxes.

6. I think we'll see some sort of de-Kuchmifikatsiya where the sins of the past are brought out into the light for all to see. I know he'll be pursuing the murderers of Gongadze and his own poisoners with vigor.

7. Nearly all of the regional governors are likely to be sacked. Most of them were tools of Yanukovych and Kuchma, and will probably be replaced by individuals who favor reform.

Some other likely moves by Yushchenko:

1. The oligarchs always paid lip-service to Euro-integration while tacking steadily toward Russia. Under Yushchenko, Ukraine will get serious about joining Western Europe. The European Parliament is being very encouraging in this, and I think Yushchenko will respond by moving on the legal and economic changes needed to join the EU.

2. Military troop level reductions. This has been proposed for years, and I believe it'll happen under Yushchenko. This would also free up money that could be used for the force-integration modernizations needed to join NATO.

3. A charm offensive to mellow out the east of Ukraine. He changed his campaign signs to say "Peace to You" during the 3rd round of voting, and he's been reaching out to them since then. I think he'll speak very softly to the people of the east, while using the General Prosecutor's office to quell any separatism among their political hierarchy. (The Ukrainian constitution declares any such agitation to be illegal.)

4. He'll follow through on the Iraq troop pull-out. Otherwise, I think he'll be friendly toward the US but I don't expect the US to loom overly large on the agenda. The focus is on Europe, as it always has been. Which is why the conspiracy theorists who posit Washingtonian machinations really are silly.

5. A lot of industrial subsidies are likely to go away. Many were engineered by the oligarch parties to support their own factories. I would also expect him to continue his reforms from his Prime Minister days in both the energy and agricultural spheres. His free market reforms in these areas were remarkable.

6. I don't expect any sort of hostility toward Russia. Electing Yushchenko didn't make Ukraine any less hungry for Russian oil or any less interwined with her economically. Russia won't have a willing stooge in office any more, but Yushchenko is a reasonable and practical person and isn't going to pick a fight with nothing to gain.

Progress in Ukraine

Yushchenko hasn't yet been inagurated, and already things are looking up. What should I find on the market shelves this afternoon? Guinness Stout in draught bottles.

This is the sort of Euro-integration I can really get behind.

How Former KGBisti saved the Revolution

Throughout the first two weeks of the Revolution, we had constant reports of troop movements. More than once I rushed with my camera to an area where we were expected to be hit. They had the troops in place, but the blow never fell. Now we know why.

As the New York Times puts it:

"More than 10,000 troops scrambled toward trucks. Most had helmets, shields and clubs. Three thousand carried guns. Many wore black masks. Within 45 minutes, according to their commander, Lt. Gen. Sergei Popkov, they had distributed ammunition and tear gas and were rushing out the gates.

Kiev was tilting toward a terrible clash, a Soviet-style crackdown that could have brought civil war. And then, inside Ukraine's clandestine security apparatus, strange events began to unfold."

What follows is a fascinating look at what was happening inside Ukraine's vast security agencies while the rest of us were in the street. A group of high ranking officers was holding back a crack-down.

We would see the occasional MVD officer on-stage, once even an entire MVD university staff. There were rumblings from the SBU not to harm civilians, and a group of them addressed us at the Square one evening. But none of us had any idea that we had friends such as these. Thank God for them.

The Times write-up is the best I've seen. Special thanks to Bloggle for bringing it to my attention.

Ukraine Update -- 17 January

- Moroz reminded Yushchenko today that he provided the margin of victory for Yushchenko's presidential victory. According to Moroz, 14% of the Orange vote came from Socialist Party members. Given that he was never higher than 5% in the polls, I'm not sure how he's come to this figure. Either way, the maneuvering within the Orange coalition continues, as is inevitable once the battle is won.

- Yushchenko's people have said that Yanukovych's series of frivolous lawsuits are a stalling tactic to allow his cronies to exit the country with their stolen capital and to continue destroying evidence of corruption -- one dead Transport Minister or banker at a time. Yushchenko's summoned the prosecutor-general and directed him to open investigations into this.

- In Kherson, supporters of Yushchenko organized an auto rally to visit the pro-Yanukovych protest there. The idea was to try to reach them through dialogue -- a tactic used throughout the Revolution. The dialogue never happened. Yanukovych's people broke flags from the cars, beat on them with fists and feet, and then broke car windows with rocks.

The Virtual Side of the Orange Revolution

Just as with the Russo-Ukrainian tiff over Tuzla, the Orange Revolution spilled over into the online world. Here are a few of my favorites:

Election 2004 -- Chestnut Revolution.

The eggs on Yanukovych's body go back to the egging he received during the campaign. He fell to the ground in a faint and tried to play it up as a terrorist act.

Yanukovych as Agent Smith -- "Be Like Me"

There are about a million such parodies of Yanukovych's formerly ubiquitous billboards. They featured the Ukrainian phrase "Tomy Shcho" -- Because -- followed by words like leader, orderly, and so on. People had a lot of fun with the template. This one says, "Because. . . Mafia."

"Tell me how many soldiers need to be sent to Chechnya, Vova."

Election 2004 -- Your children will be in reliable hands.

Ukraine Update -- 16 January

Tonight's update will have to be quick, but I'll give you a fuller run-down tomorrow.

- Bad news for Yanukovych -- The "Congress of Invalids" is going to testify against Yanukovych's case before the Supreme Court. Remember, his primary complaint is mass disenfranchisement of the handicapped. The Congress of Invalids will present data that the number of invalids who were unable to vote was less than 1% of the total vote count.

- Katerinchuk, from Yushchenko's HQ, spoke today about the unprofessional nature of Yanukovych's Supreme Court complaint. Remember, that this is coming from a partisan source. Here's what he had to say:

1. The majority of the complaints are identical, regardless of their ostensible city of origin. They're also mostly photocopies.

2. The "Tomes" of the complaint aren't as Tome-ish as one might think -- Tome #10 consists of 1 page, #3 - 9 pages, #6- 8 pages. . .

3. Most of the complaints center on alleged election-day "agitations." One example -- a Mercedes played the Ukrainian anthem with its window down on Election Day. Another from Tome #87 -- an urn used for voting had orange plasticine on it.

- There seems to be tension among the Oranges. Tymoshenko made some pointed comments on the Square against Yushchenko's call that the tent city disband. She also keeps publicly mentioning Yushchenko's obligation to nominate her for Prime Minister.

- Protests in Russia over social benefits continued today, the first unrest against Putin in a long time. Unlike in Ukrainian protest movements, the Communists are taking a leading role in this one. I'll be doing a full post on this tomorrow.

- The Supreme Court has refused to hear three of Yanuovych's complaints. Again, more tomorrow on this.

- Kushnarev, the Separatist ex-governor of the Kharkiv region, has formed his own political party -- "New Democracy". Few details are available so far, but it's a safe bet that it'll be anti-Yushchenko and focused on federalism.

Ukraine Update -- 15 January

- The Supreme Court is reviewing Yanukovych's (final!) complaint today. They've already rejected over a dozen other suits by the old zek. Once this one is swatted down, the inaguration date can be set. The word is that it should be done by Thursday.

- Yanukovych could still appeal to the European Court for Human Rights. Even if they took up the case, the court's backlog means he'd wait about three years for a ruling.

- A UN Report is urging root and branch reform in Ukraine.

- I received some emails from people calling Yushchenko hypocritical because old people were allegedly disenfranchised during the revote. Here's an English-language link to a CBC article. Notice the quote from the prosecutor investigating the allegations: "Already Friday, prosecutor Oleksandr Onishchenko said a probe into 584 of Yanukovych's complaints in which people alleged they could not vote showed that "most of them were forged."

- Yanukovych supporters brought a coffin of rotten oranges to the office of the Lugansk City Executive Committee yesterday. They say the mayor's refusal to call Yanukovych the presidential victor is "treason". Good strategy -- alienate your few remaining friends.

- The Yanukovych tent village in central Donetsk is now up to 50 tents. The protest today drew 4-8,000 people.

- In another major sign that the oligarch front has cracked, the Lugansk-based "Soyuz" Party has refused to join the anti-Yushchenko Opposition. This is another 17 newly-neutral MPs. They want a constructive relationship with the new government, and will consider joining once the new Prime Minister is announced. This is major, because Lugansk is one of the three centers of anti-Orange fervor.

- Lytvyn, who has been angling to be a "third force" in the Parliament, is going to head up a new faction come next week -- Democratic Ukraine. A spokesman announced that they already have the 14 MPs needed to form a faction. My understanding is that he hopes to collect a lot of the MPs who have left the old oligarch parties, but won't go Orange.

- Yanukovych's people are also protesting in Odessa. They're doing it at the Lenin Monument. You can tell a lot about people by their friends.

Ukraine Update -- 14 January

I had a long update done, but Hosting Matters chose that moment to drop again, and I lost it. It may be me dropping Hosting Matters in the near future. . .

- Yanukovych's spokesman says there is a near-100% chance that they'll submit their complaint to the Supreme Court tomorrow.

- According to the General Prosecutor's office, the Social Dems (Medvedchuk), Regions Party (Yanukovych) and a Moscow-aligned Russian Orthodox group spent 10.6 million grivnas (about $2 million) on 125 special trains to ferry Yanukovych-supporters around Ukraine for multiple voting.

- There are now 18 tents in the center of Donetsk, in hopes of a Blue Revolution. That makes about as much sense as rioters burning down their own neighborhood. The government offices are all in Kiev, so why should it bother Yushchenko if they close down the Square in Donetsk?

- There's a major movement organizing to have Yushchenko nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

- Two smaller pro-Yushchenko parties are speaking against forming a large, unified party. Instead they want to run as separate parties grouped in a bloc for the 2006 elections.

- Russia's Defense Minister, Sergei Ivanov, says that Russia is ready to work with the newly appointed Ukrainian leadership, and that the election is in the past.

Ukraine Update -- 12 January

- The Supreme Court has blocked the official results of the presidential elections while they review Yanukovych's complaint frivolous lawsuit.

- The US has reacted to the Ukrainian pull-out from Iraq, requesting that they consult with the US and Iraqi governments in advance of any withdrawal.

- Yanukovych's spokesman, Chornovil, announced that if the Court decides against them, they're going to organize various committees -- the Committe for the Defense of Human Rights, another for the Defense of the Constitution, another for the Economic Independence of Ukraine, and a possible fourth -- for the defense of the Social Rights of Citizens.

No word on when the Committee for Smirking Irony is being organized.

- Yanukovych announced again today that he'll never recognize Yushchenko's victory. Meanwhile, it looks like his threat to go to the European Court for Human Rights might be an empty one -- MP Kluchkovskiy announced that the court doesn't review presidential elections.

- Putin's surrogates are making nice with Ukraine.

Ukraine Update -- 11 January

- As you all know by now, Yushchenko was declared the winner today by the Central Election Commission. We are so close. . .

- Yanukovych has begun another suit with the Supreme Court to overturn the elections. He's brought in Swiss legal counsel, and has plans to go next to the European Court on Human Rights if the Supremes disappoint him. I'm sure that undermining Ukrainian sovereignty in such a way will endear him to Ukrainians everywhere.

- The details of Yushchenko's inaguration should be known by COB Tuesday. His campaign manager, Zinchenko, says that his inagural speech will be a significant one, where he'll speak about his plans a president. The G-8 leaders are being invited. He added that in either late January or early February Yushchenko will give the full details of the plan for his presidency.

- Kuchma gave orders today for plans to withdraw the Ukrainian contingent in Iraq. In response, the US praised Ukrainian contributions in Iraq, and said that any future decisions wouldn't detract from the work that Ukraine has done.

- A few pro-Yanukovych types protested outside the Central Election Commission. Once again, Vitrenko was rousing the rabble. Check out the bottom pic for a peek at the old battleaxe herself.

- One of the creators of the now-infamous temniki (Soviet-style talking points for the media) is now forming an alternative information agency in Ukraine. Sergei Vasilev is a close associate of Medvedchuk, head of the Presidential Administraton and the Social-Dems here in Ukraine. This is another piece of evidence of the basic silliness of the recent AP scare piece on Yushchenko and media freedom.

Ukraine Update -- 10 January

- I've updated the "Yushchenko and Iraq" thread to include this important bit: Parliament has passed a resolution in December demanding troop withdrawal.

- Seven Ukrainian soldiers died today in an explosion in Iraq. Yushchenko said afterward that a troop pull-out is a priority.

- Yanukovych has complaints regarding three western Ukrainian districts remaining before the Supreme Court. They're expected to rule on it today, which will theoretically allow for certification of the election by tonight.

- Th date most often quoted for the inauguration is Jan 14th -- Old New Year. There'll be a ceremony in the parliament building, and then a public "meeting" out on the Square. I will definitely be there, warmed internally with a shot or two of hot pepper vodka.

Yushchenko and the Iraq Coalition

I support the democratization of Iraq. I believe in our efforts there. This put me in an unusual position during the Orange Revolution, because one of Yushchenko's campaign points was a pull-out of troops from Iraq. I decided that the fate of 48 million Ukrainians outweighed their contributions in Iraq. It was the right decision.

No doubt, some of my readers are angry about the prospect of Ukrainian troops leaving Iraq. At least one has made the point that if Yushchenko really supports democracy, he needs to support it in Iraq as well. There's been comparison of any Ukrainian pull-out with the retreat of the Spanish in the face of the train bombing.

I can understand these points of view. To me, the electoral defeat of Aznar by the terrorists seems to be a blot on Spanish honor. But there is a real difference between Spain and Ukraine. Aznar really believed in the war. His government really was "willing."

Ukrainian troops ended up in Iraq as a bid by Kuchma to buy his way back into American good graces after the Gongadze murder and the allegations of radar sales to Iraq. The Ukrainian people were overwhelmingly against it, and the government itself did everything it could to undermine support for the war -- the anti-American drumbeat on the TV was relentless. It's understandable if public opinion is now firmly entrenched against the war.

People were overwhelmingly opposed -- I spent the months before the war constantly defending American policies to friend and stranger alike. If any country matches the critics' attacks on the coalition as mercenary and coerced, it's Ukraine.

My personal wish is that Ukrainians would come to see the value of the work in Iraq, and that the Ukrainian troops would stay. People will hopefully hear both sides now that the media has freed itself from the shackles of the temniki.

In the meantime, Yushchenko has been democratically elected by a people who want the troops home. Many of the readers here support the freedom of the Iraqi people to choose their destiny, but can we then ignore the freedom of Ukrainians to do the same?

UPDATE- One key aspect I overlooked in this is that Ukraine's parliament has already approved a resolution demanding the withdrawal of the troops. This gives Yushchenko even less potential freedom of movement.

Ukraine Update -- 9 January

- At the tent city, they're still mocking Yanukovych's wife. She said that all of us in the tent city (I've long since moved out) were getting meningitis, that we were eating narcotic-laced oranges, and that our valenki boots came from the States. Here's a tent city response I noticed yesterday:

- Our buddy Joe St asked to see Yulia Tymoshenko's flag. They're the majority at the tent city now:

- The election results should finally be certified tomorrow. Then Yanukovych can file another frivolous lawsuit with the Supreme Court, get smacked down, and Yushchenko can be inagurated. Then we break out the hot pepper vodka.

- Another protest in the east -- 2,000 people in Donetsk. Once again, the Witch of Konotop, Progressive Socialist Natalya Vitrenko, was the ringleader. They waved Russian flags and ranted about the "orange plague." This seems more about Vitrenko trying to stay viable for the 2006 Parliamentary race. She needs 3% to win seats for her party, and she's down to 1.5% at best.

- We're getting ready for high inflation in Ukraine -- 7% is the optimistic figure. Yanukovych doubled pensions for the election, and spent the last year keeping prices on many things artificially low to win support for his presidential bid. Unfortunately, it's Yushchenko's administration that'll have to pay the bill.

- A good Times story about religion and the Revolution -- Orthodox slander campaigns, Protestant participation, etc.

Ukraine Update -- 8 January

- Progressive Socialist leader Natalya Vitrenko, AKA the "The Witch of Konotop", led a rally for Yanukovych in Crimea recently. 1,000 people came. That was the largest group the pro-Yanukovych forces could muster since the election. Yes, that is a gloating tone in my voice.

- Parliamentary Speaker Lytvyn went to Moscow at the invite of Putin. He told reporters there that the split in Ukraine is no longer acute, and that the economy has stabilized. He also said that the new President is anxious to develop stronger economic ties with Russia. This is what people in the East need to see and hear.

- People's Deputy Volkov made an interesting statement on Channel 5 -- Kuchma never intended to allow Yanukovych real power. The idea was to elect him, and then transfer power through strong Constitutional Reform over to Parliament, where Kuchma would have been waiting to receive it. Take this as interesting, reasonable, but unsubstantiated gossip.

- The former head of the Parliamentary majority under Yanukovych, Gavrish, was speculating yesterday on who would be the new Opposition. The Communists are certainly on the list, and likely the Regions Party and the rump of the Social Dems. He thinks the Socialists may come over if they don't get what they want from Yushchenko.

- From Yushchenko's Christmas message: "The miracle of the Savior's birth... strengthens our belief and inevitable victory of good over evil, light over dark."

- Chirac congratulated Yushchenko on his victory, and said it was important for all the people of Europe. It's a pleasant, though slightly surreal, feeling to be on the same side as Chirac.

Yushchenko and Media Freedom

I noticed an AP story today on Ukrainian media reform. While there were some good facts in it, it lacks perspective. The article focuses on the post-Revolution transitions in Ukrainian media. Underlying the article is a constant implication that Yushchenko may end up repressing and controlling the media as Kuchma and Putin did.

There's only one thing lacking -- any shred of evidence that this is likely. Yushchenko hasn't taken a single action that could in any way be interpreted as hostile to media freedom. Quite the contrary. We might also posit that he's going to initiate pogroms against Bulgarians or sponsor book burnings -- there's an equal amount of evidence for them.

Other than the total lack of a foundation for this article, there are a few other factors:

1. Most people get their media from private sources, not the government channels over which the president has adminstrative control. These private channels are held in large measure by Yanukovych supporters (though many have rebelled against political interference in reporting.)

2. Media is a business, and with around 40% supporting Yanukovych, there will always be a market for the Opposition point of view.

3. The oligarchs lost an election, not their billions. They will still be able to finance media outlets.

4. The nature of Yushchenko's coalition wouldn't allow for repression, even if he were secretly a devil. This is the faction that memorializes Gongadze, not the one that killed him.

Merry Christmas!

Today is Christmas in Ukraine. We're now through Western Christmas, New Year and Eastern Christmas. Only Old New Year to go, and the long, national vodka-induced hangover will start to fade.

Yushchenko does the right thing. Spike Lee would be proud.

"There's no difference between Yushcheno and Yanukovych. Yushchenko won't be any different than Kuchma once he has the power. . ."

These were the sort of the foolish assertions the critics of the Orange Revolution could get away with in the past. But as Yushchenko assumes power and begins acting, this critique falls apart. When they wanted to tarnish us, their chosen whipping boy was often Petro Poroshenko -- the "Orange oligarch." He's the owner of Channel 5 and the Willie Wonka of Ukraine. The problem is, these critics had trouble pointing to a trail of bodies or stolen companies with which to demonize him. He actually tends to build the businesses he owns.

Anyway, back to Yushchenko. He's already showing how crystal the difference is between him and Kuchma -- he's stated flatly that no one who is involved in business will be considered for Prime Minister. "I am ready to initiate public documents, which will be verified, that each member of the leadership isn't involved in business or the leadership of a political party structure." (translation mine)

Compare that with the incestuous linkage of Kuchma with the Dnepropetrovsk clan.

Now Poroshenko is one of the two most likely for PM. Today he announced that he's going to turn over his stocks to an "auditing company" to control them, as is done in "traditional European democracies." He'll also relinquish control over his factories and won't be involved in business while PM.

Ukraine Update -- 7 January

- A website is calling for the formation of a "Slavic Guard" to chase out the "American occupiers" (Yushchenko). They have a forum for people to discuss daily "agitation." It also has a lot to say about Federalism. I don't have a link yet, will post it when I do. I doubt this Slavic Guard will amount to anything anyway.

- Yanukovych got turned down by the Supremes today. The Central Election Commission can now make the results official -- Yushchenko by 7.8%. Then we can have the fun of watching another frivolous Yanukovych lawsuit get smacked down as he contests the official results.

- Someone asked earlier what could be the motive in delaying the inaguration. First, Yanukovych is grasping at every last shred of hope. And secondly, it gives people time to finish bumping off former cabinet ministers, exporting assets, and destroying evidence.

- The Orange faction is playing very smart politics for the 2006 election. Plenty of us were worried that victory might bring fractures. Instead, they're forming a united party sometime before March. "Nasha Ukraina" will provide the base, and Poroshenko's "Solidarity" Party will join in. No word yet on Dame Yulia's people.

- The activists I've been talking to are comfortable with either Tymashenko or Poroshenko. The impression I get is that both are seen as genuine reformers. Kinakh, who came to the Opposition after the first round of voting, raised his stock with a very intelligent interview recently. Before people had viewed him with suspicion, now some see him as a reliable manager who would be willing to follow Yushchenko's lead. None of my people want Moroz, and I'm not sure how his name keeps coming up in reports. I have trouble imagining Yushchenko ever nominating him, especially after his "Constitutional Reform" mania.

Ukraine Update -- 6 January

- Kuchma has finally accepted Yanukovych's resignation, and has appointed Mykola Azarov as acting PM. This is the former Yanukovych Deputy who appeared on-stage with Yushchenko on New Year's. He'd been invited there by Omelchenko, the mayor of Kiev. While I haven't had time to fully research it, my understanding is that there's an internal debate over Azarov's status. Some see a place for him in a future cabinet, especially as a conciliatory gesture to the east. Others see him as suspect at best, and the Yabluko Party was already protesting him. I'll post more as I learn more.

- Kuchma has now fired the entire Cabinet of Ministers.

- Yushchenko said in a press conference that the major priority of the political elite needs to be to prepare for and ensure clean elections in 2006. He also said that his government would be run "in service" to the law, and that no persecution of his political opponents will be allowed.

- The People's Agrarian Party, the faction of acting Speaker Lytvyn, plans to join Yushchenko's majority coalition. They're demanding three cabinet posts and an autographed picture of Yulia Tymoshenko in a Snegurotchka costume.

- Yushchenko's team is working on a "new conception of the budget and strategy for the development of Ukraine." There's a press conference on Jan 20th to announce it. I'll definitely try to make it if I can.

- Yushchenko and President Saakashvili of Georgia signed the "Carpathian Declaration." Among other things, it stated that the two people's had "shown the whole world that freedom and democracy, the will of the people and just elections are much stronger than the government machine, however strong and cruel it might be." (translation mine.)

It also denied the "thesis of some" that a peaceful democratic revolution could be created by artificial means or foreign intervention. On the contrary, they said, the revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine were done in spite of the external influence of another country. *cough* Russia.

- Yanukovych has brought a fifth complaint to the Supreme Court, hoping to overturn the elections. Even his own spokesman doesn't sound hopeful. The Court will consider his complaint tomorrow. The Central Election Commission head has decided not to certify the results until hearing from the Court.

Photoblogging -- Jan 5

This is Tulipgirl, in front of Shevchenko University, standing in Shevchenko Park next to the Shevchenko Memorial across the street from the Shevchenko Museum and the Shevchenko Restaurant which is on, you guessed it, Shevchenko Street. You think you're sick of the name, you should be a kid in Ukrainian Lit class. . .

Anyway, we scored amazing tickets to La Bohème today at the Opera House. Imagine center mezzanine seats for less than a Starbucks Double Mocha Latte -- opera as popular entertainment, I love Ukraine.

They have chess tables in the park. These guys were braving freezing rain to get in a game.

This is a little Orthodox Church down the street from us. In some ways I like it better than the cathedrals.

We stopped by the tent city on our date tonight, but all my buddies have gone back to Lutsk, Odessa and the like. We did see a couple of UNA-UNSO flags, but I was surprised that the most popular one was for Yulia Tymoshenko's party. It's notble as probably the first political flag in history with a big pink stripe.

Attn: Publishers and Literary Agents

Dan McMinn of Orange Ukraine and I are co-authoring a popular history of the Orange Revolution, with the working title of Tangerine Dreams: Front Seat at the Orange Revolution. He spent the period working in the Yushchenko HQ, while I worked with in the headquarters of the PORA protest movement. As they say, the victors write the histories.

The world is paying attention to Ukraine for virtually the first time since Independence, and there are few popular works on the country. None put the events of the past month in perspective -- the Revolution took place in a country with a political culture too weird for most spy novels.

The structure of the work is a hybrid of chronological narrative and expository chapters. The narrative sections give the reader a sense of forward movement, while the other chapters explore the faces, factions and ramifications of these events. The projected length is 260 pages.

I'm finishing our proposal this evening, and would be happy to forward it to any publishers or agents who might find it of interest. You can contact me at discoshaman@saintly.com

Ukraine Update -- 5 January

- Yulia says she has the votes in Parliament to become Prime Minister. She also says in an interview that coalition agreements stipulate that Yushchenko WILL offer the job to her. The wire story didn't pick this up, but she said in the interview that she'll continue to support Yushchenko even if she doesn't receive the position.

- Medvedchuk, leader of the Kiev clan, is watching his political base continue to crumble. A component of his faction, the Social Justice Party (who said oligarchs don't have a sense of humor), has lost ten people in two weeks, most to the Yushchenko-aligned Agrarian Party. They're now below the viability limit for Parliament, and are going to end up dissolving.

- One theory holds that Yushchenko will fulfill his duties in nominating Yulia for PM. She'll then be defeated and Poroshenko, the candy factory magnate and owner of the Opposition's Channel 5, will be tapped for the job. While not ideal, to my mind, this would still qualify for happy ending status.

- Ukrainska Pravda reports that while Yanukovych has announced his resignation, it hasn't actually been officialized, and he's still technically the PM. For what that's worth.

A visit from an anti-Yushchenko celebrity

Justin Raimondo, from the Pat Buchananite site antiwar.com, paid us a visit today. Given the occasion, I decided to respond here rather than in comments. I thought it would be instructive for us all to see a premier anti-Yushchenko critic at his finest. Or something.

Oh puh-leeze. Why a supposed Christian like yourself wants to re-start the cold war is beyond me.

Good form. Always good to start off questioning the personal faith of the other person.

As for the Cold War, this is a canard. The Orange Revolution is about 48 million Ukrainians living under a corrupt autocracy, not about your misplaced geopolitical obsessions.

I'm not looking to restart the Cold war. I'm looking to have my children grow up in a democratic country. Last time I checked, it was within my rights to do so. Ukraine is my home, I love her, and I didn't want her turning into the new Belarus.

Your argument contains the same facile moral equivalency arguments trotted out by your ilk during the whole of the Cold War, so it's no wonder you still think in those terms. America gave around 61 million dollars in grants to build democratic institutions in Ukraine. Russia spent as much as $300 million backing an autocratic thug who stole the election in an amazingly brutal fashion. And your moral myopia blends the two into one hazy image.

If we took all the money the U.S. pumped into the Ukraine to get the "right" result, and just GAVE it to the Ukrainian people, we'd be a lot better off. But then that would cut out the middle man, now wouldn't it?

GREAT idea. I'm sure the Ukrainian people will all be glad for the $1.27 1.35 per person. Because that's what $61 65 million comes out to. (Editor's Note: I misquoted the stats. The Ukrainians get an actual 8 cents more than even I had imagined.)

As for the money itself, it went to things like an American Bar Association grant for training judges, grants for training teachers, courses for poli sci students about republican forms of government, and the like. The fact that you see them as sinister says a lot more about you than it does the grants.

"Oh, and by the way: why is it impossible to post the words antiwar dot com on your site? Have you actually banned that url address? It's amazing what hypocrites our champions of "freedom" can be, when they put their minds to it."

I have no idea why the content filter doesn't like it. If you'd like though, you can pretend I've banned it to keep Pat Buchanan's site from getting publicity. You see, I'm terrified he might grow in popularity and actually break a half percentage point in the next presidential election.

Anyway, thanks for stopping by.

Ukraine Update -- 4 January

- Reporters have backed off the announcement of 13 January as Inaguration Day. Given that Yanukovych's legal Hail Marys aren't yet exhausted, the government hasn't yet set a date.

- The Lviv regional council has approached Yushchenko with the request that he name Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. It'll be interesting in coming days to see what other names arise, and who brings them up.

- Putin has disciplined his economic advisor, Andrei Illarionov, stripping him of his duties with the G-8, for instance. This is in response to Illarionov's statement that Yushchenko's victory should help Russia get over its "imperial complex."

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has at least graduated to paying lip service to Ukrainian sovereignty: "We respect the right of every state, including our neighbours, to choose their partners themselves and decide on which organisations they want to join. . ." This will be tested once NATO is one of those organizations.

- Ukraine avoided a crisis by signing a gas deal with Turkmenistan today. This member of the Stan Brothers provides 45% of Ukraine's gas. The price is up $14 per 1,000 cubic meters, but at least it's flowing again.

- Ukrainska Pravda has an English-language article up on capital flight, Medvedchuk, and the recent pair of suspicious deaths. Yushchenko is quoted saying that "He (Kuchma) is responsible before the law the same as any ordinary person."

- Check out Zerkalo Nedeli's article Suicide by Contract for more on the murders.

Putin's Fifth Column in the West

While from differing sides of the political spectrum, I admire Jake Rudnitsky a lot. He prints the truth for an alternative newspaper inside Putin's Russia. He's just put out a great column about Russia and the anti-Yushchenko critics in the West. Some of it will be familiar to readers of Le Sabot, but he adds a lot of new information.

For example, he has this about Jonathan Steele, Kuchma concubine: "Steele has gone on at least two 5-star Kremlin-sponsored junkets in the last four months, and not surprisingly, he is also taking the Kremlin's line."

He also gives some background on the Russia Club which Yanukovych apologists like Steele and Sergei Markov belonged to: "It was the brainchild of Gleb Pavlovsky, the powerful Kremlin spin doctor and one of the chief propagandists of the Yanukovich campaign." Markov is a Putin crony best known for claiming that the Orange Revolution is a "Polish conspiracy." Those nefarious Poles. . .

Read what Rudnitsky has to say about the British Helsinki Foundation -- it's truly damning. The good news is that their support of dictators like Milosevic has dropped their funding about 99% since 2001.

Unreconstructed Euro-Lefties, Pat Buchanan and hired gun "intellectuals" -- an unsavory bunch. Almost as grotesque as the authoritarian politicians they're defending.

bloggy stuff -- polls and blogrolls

Tulipgirl is in the running for "Best Educational/Homeschooling Blog." Voting just opened today. Rules allow one vote a day. Pop over and show your support if you get a sec.

Also, I'm updating my blogroll over the next couple of days -- my VT circle of friends has grown a bit during the Revolution. If you've permalinked me and haven't yet felt reciprocal love, drop a comment on this thread and let me know. Thanks! :-)

The oligarchs could have won fairly.

Now that we've won, this is something my Ukrainian friends have talked a lot about lately. If Kuchma had only picked someone more respectable, someone with even a shred of dignity, he could have won without even falsifying the election or poisoning Yushchenko.

That's the great irony in all of this. Kuchma and his people had the administrative resources, the financial power and the media monopoly to win this election fairly, if they'd picked a decent candidate. Witness the meteoric rise of a thug like Yanukovych -- from basement-level public opinion to near-parity with Yushchenko. A similar makeover on someone like Tyhypko would have turned him into a saint.

But Kuchma wanted the whole pie -- someone utterly dependent on the oligarchs for survival, someone without the initiative or mental resources for independent action. And so Yanukovych got tapped.

Like Orange Ukraine says, the democrats only win in the former Soviet Union on errors. The ruling powers have to overreach for us to score a victory. Thank God they did this time.

UNA-UNSO -- the Orange Fringe

Like I said early in the Revolution, there are crazy aunts on the orange side of the fence (it's worthwhile to read the comments on that thread as well.) Like any center-right movement in Europe, there is a reactionary fringe to the Oranges, in this case -- UNA-UNSO.

I just noticed a Seattle Times article mentioning their increasing profile in the tent city as everyone else packs up and goes home. This is true. During the Revolution, when you saw camouflage it was a group of Yushchenko's peacekeepers -- the Sons of a Free Ukraine. Now it tends to be a solitary UNA-UNSO guy.

It's a small group -- only about 1,000 people in a nation of 48 million. I really don't like them. Leonid Finberg, from the Kiev-based Jewish Yudaica center, says that anti-semitism isn't part of UNA-UNSO's policy. Nevertheless, they DO have them in the ranks. And no normal group of people just happens to pick red and black for their colors and choose an iron cross for their symbol.

Apologists for the old regime trot out this tiny group as a way to discredit the millions of normal people fighting for their freedom. The same could be done to virtually any successful social movement in history -- from Civil Rights to the environmental movement.

Ukraine Update -- 2 January

- The inaguration will take place in the Parliament on 13 January!

- In the meantime, Yushchenko is skiing in western Ukraine and drawing up lists of new government figures. The figure I've seen quoted for the number of bureaucrats being replaced is 2,000. Hopefully many activists will get the chance to put their ideas into practice.

- I reported last week that one bigshot in Yanukovuch's Party of the Regions, Nikolai Azarov, was hedging about whether or not to oppose Yushchenko. It now turns out that along with hundreds of thousands of other people, Azarov came to Independence Square to show support for Yushchenko. But there's more about Azaroz. . .

He's now a cooperating witness in the General Prosecutor and SBU Directorate K investigation into the Yanukovych Cabinet and the National Bank. It's not hard to imagine that this investigation might have been a cause in Transport Minister Kirpa's recent fatal bout of lead poisoning.

- As many as 200 members of the old regime have applied for diplomatic passports in the wake of Yushchenko's victory. It's estimated that former Kuchma cronies seek to flee with as much as 1 billion dollars in creatively acquired loot.

- President Kuchma said in his New Year's speech (which everyone watches in lieu of a big, descending apple)that in 2005 there would be a new, democratically-elected president, and that the people should support him. No names were mentioned, but I'm sure Yanukovuch's people weren't happy to hear the old devil giving even tacit support to Yushchenko. They already see Kuchma as a turncoat.

Ukraine Update -- New Year's Day

Nothing happend today. Nada. Rien. Ничего. Thanks to the Commies, Christmas has been relegated to the holiday second string and all that Yuletide cheer stuff got sublimated into New Years. It's the biggest day of the year. Even the mafia hitmen take today off, apparently, so the most exciting thing I have to report is the fireworks bursting outside my window.

New Years on Independence Square!

We only managed to see the stage around 1 am. Unfortunately, that meant we had to listen to Yushchenko's Happy New Year message rather than see it, because we were stuck over near the tent city. Nevertheless, it was great being out there with the kids. The Duchess stayed home with a headache, but three of the boys came with me and some friends. A warm snow fell on us right around midnight, which was perfectly beautiful.

There were more people out tonight than during any night of the Revolution that I can remember. Which is interesting, because it's not a normal part of Ukrainian culture to gather in the Square, such as they do in new York.

The kids LOVED the fireworks tonight. They were pretty impressive.

Here's two of my yellow-haired monkeys, along with their friend Alina.

There were little pockets of people dancing all over the place, accompanied by folk musicians. Too bad the Duchess couldn't make it. . .

We came across these girls on the way home. Queen Amidala, eat your heart out.

Yanukovych's New Year gift for Ukraine

He announced tonight on channel TRK that he's resigning as Prime Minister! Ding dong the witch is dead and all that. He also mentioned that he won't be fulfilling any position in the Yushchenko government, an absence which will undoubtedly be sorely felt. Or something. Anyway, if I were to believe in omens, this would definitely fall into the "good" category. 2005 is going to be a great year!

Fireworks and the Ukrainian Soul

Growing up, I couldn't imagine anyone loving holiday pyrotechnics more than your average Florida good old boy. Then I moved to Ukraine. At our first flat, I remember people shooting them from one balcony toward another across the courtyard. Tonight, in a crowd of hundreds of thousands, they were shooting off rockets from inside the crowd. Even now, at 3 am, it sounds like a re-enactment of Beirut outside.

The Liberal Media Comes to Town!

My buddy, known here as The Liberal Media, has taken the train down from Warsaw for a couple of days. He earned the moniker because he reports for a particular wire service the conservative blogosphere loves to hate. But otherwise he's a cool frood. Anyway, we wandered downtown today with his giant California flag, posed for pictures, and traded ideas on the Revolution.

He also gave me this press release to share with you all:

"Big break in the killing of Transport Minister Kirpa -- the militia is now saying they suspect anyone who has ever had to use a Ukrainian train toilet, or tried to eat soup in a dining car that's rocking like a bed in a waterfront brothel. . ."

You heard it here first.

QUICK Ukraine update -- New Year's Eve!

- Yanukovych's representative in the Party of the Regions, Nikolai Azarov, has said he isn't ready to go into Opposition to Yushchenko. He wants to first hear what his economic policies will be before choosing sides. The oligarch facade of unity is no match for the wrecking ball of self-interest.

- The General Prosecutor is interrogating the leaders of the Separatist movement -- including the heads of the Donetsk and Lugansk regional administration and the mayor of Odessa. This should be a bucketful of cold water on any remaining Separatist hopes.

New Year's on the Square

Hardly a single person in my circle of friends is going to be home tomorrow night. Everyone is hitting Independence Square. Events are planned until 2 am, and they're even keeping the metro running until 2:30. The best part -- they announced today that Mikhail Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, will be there. He and his "Rose Revolution" were an inspiration to all of us during the uncertain early days of our own, so it'll be wonderful to hear the great man speak.

I'll post photos as soon as I get home tomorrow! With the seven hour time difference, at least the American and Canadian readers should still be sober enough to see them.

a dangerous man to know. . .

According to Maidan.org.ua, two more associates of Yanukovych are missing, including one name you probably know -- Sergei Tyhypko. This is, of course, the former head of the National Bank and Yanukovuch's old campaign manager. He's also a man who knows where all the bodies are buried. Perhaps even his own. . . Maidan believes he is either dead, in hiding, or being held against his will.

Interestingly, Maidan is also reporting that another Yanu bigwig, V. Satskovo, is also missing and rumored to be dead. He's the head of a large factory in Zaporizha -- "Запорожсталь". Maidan says that reports about the situation contradict one another, but all agree on a single item -- he's dead.

As with many things, Maidan errs on the side of quick reporting rather than waiting for confirmation, but they're honest enough to say so. I'll report when I have confirmation, but in the meantime it looks like the snake is continuing to eat itself.

Ukraine Update -- 30 December

- The Supreme Court has rejected ALL of Yanukovych's appeals on lesser matters relating to the revote. And the Central Election Commission has rejected Yanukovych's complaint as well, citing lack of evidence. He has seven days from the time the results are certified to appeal to the Supreme Court, and he almost undoubtedly will. So this isn't over yet.

- In news of interest only to Kievites, the city is again consolidating its regions. We've already gone from 14 to 10, and it will soon be down to 5.

- The deadline for registering parties for the 2006 elections is nearing, so there's a flurry of activity on that front. Today the former Defense Minister, Evgeniy Marchuk, formed the "Freedom Party". I don't know his politics well enough yet to say if the name is apt or Orwellian.

- Great news from Germany -- 62% support Ukraine's entry into the EU. I remember a poll from last year in which 80% of the Germans held a negative perception of Ukraine. Again, what a difference a month makes. Of course, they'll have to wait until their Gallic masters agree, but it's still helpful to have the Germans with us.

- An interesting article on the findings of the Kuchma-appointed Minister of the Economy -- America did not finance Yushenko’s campaign.

- About 50 Moscow-Patriarchate followers held another crusade march on Kreshatik Street today to show support for Yanukovych. Meanwhile, Alexey II, Patriarch of Russia and "former", decorated member of the KGB, seems to have made his peace with Yushchenko.

This will be of comfort to the members of that denomination who were supporters of Yushchenko, as heavy pressure was put on them to be a "good" believer and vote for Yanukovych. Not all were so independently minded -- the mother of a friend of mine preferred Yushchenko, but voted Yanukovych because she felt she needed to obey her church leaders.

Ukraine Blog Updates. . .

Tulipgirl is back online and dispensing bloggy goodness once more.

And, just what the world needed -- another Calvinist blogger from Kiev! Check out Little Miss Reformed.

Along with Tulipgirl, myself and Orange Ukraine, we're getting a virtual Reformation going here. . .

Ukraine Updates -- 29 December

- Yanukovych has filed 4 complaints with the Supreme Court in a bid to overturn the election. One was already rejected. Most observers don't give the case much hope for success. And the head of the Central Election Commission says that a lot of Yanukovych's purported complaints from voters were printed on the same computer with identical texts.

- Russia still hasn't recognized the results of the elections, and says that the Western observers were biased. Their chief example of "massive fraud" is that it is illegal to do political "propaganda" on election day, but there were orange "marks" everywhere.

Could we be a little more grasping and pathetic? First of all, how can you simply ban a color for an entire day? Secondly, how can the Yushchenko campaign be held personally responsible for removing everything orange in the country?

Further, does that mean that all the blue ribbons and signs in Ukraine were also examples of "massive fraud" for Yanukovych? And do the Russians really think that orange marks on election day swung the election?

Of course not. But apparently the idiom that one should stop digging when in a hole doesn't translate into Russian.

- The blockade of the Cabinet of Ministers was successful today. They ended up meeting elsewhere in the city, but sans Yanukovych.

- Akhmetov, apparently in a goodwill gesture, had Yulia Tymoshenko down to Donetsk where she appeared on one of his TV stations for a 30-minute Q&A. Given that she's the main person talking about revisiting dodgy privatization schemes, it seems he's decided it's nice to be nice.

The Kuchma -- Yanukovych Split

President Kuchma sacked Vice PM Andrei Kluev today. This is a close ally of Yanukovych and a member of his Party of the Regions.

I'm actually starting to believe in the split between these two. Given the "hang together or hang separately" nature of their situation, I had trouble crediting it during the 3rd round of the election. But Yanukovych really does seem to be biting the hand that fed him.

My impression before was that all his talk about being "deeply disappointed" in Kuchma was something like Gore's avoidance of Clinton in 2000 -- a sort of quarantining process to avoid being contaminated by an unpopular pol, and a way to disassociate himself from the stolen election.

Visiting the Yanukovych HQ altered my perspective a bit. I was surprised how venomously the campaign organizers spoke of Kuchma. They really believe he betrayed them by not using force to break the blockades and demonstrations. If the split was just a tactic, the campaign organizers never got the memo.

Yanukovych is swinging wild these days, and now Kuchma is swinging back. He's called for Yanukovych to concede in two days time, and now he's sacked his ally.

Yulia for Prime Minister?

Yushchenko announced not long ago on Channel 5 (***See Correction below) that "Nasha Ukraine" is going to back Yulia Tymoshenko for Prime Minister. Wow. I'd hoped for it, but thought that given his moderate bent he might default to someone more mild-mannered like Poroshenko.

The composition of the Rada has changed so much, I'm not sure what her chances are of being approved, honestly. But let's posit that she is. . .

Obviously, the people of Donetsk aren't going to turn cartwheels. Moroz isn't a signatory member of her fan club either. The Communists despise her. So this is not a conciliatory gesture.

Really though, I'm not sure how much that matters. The Separatism movement isn't going anywhere. And Yanukovych has already promised to be a "zhestokaya oppositsiya" -- a cruel or harsh Opposition.

Meanwhile, Tymoshenko has the strength to keep reform moving. Much of the real gains of the Revolution will need to be cemented through the Cabinet and the Rada. What's needed is not a diplomat, but a fighter -- someone with the vision to maintain clarity of purpose even in the miasma of the legislative and bureaucratic processes. There are no guarantees that the system won't fall back into old habits -- unless sufficient pressure is maintained to force it to change.

I'm honestly encouraged by this appointment, because it's a statement about what sort of president Yushchenko intends to be. Rather than letting his critics set the agenda, he's moving forward aggressively for reform.

Correction: I just learned that Yushchenko's people have issued a correction, and that he hasn't stated definitively that Yulia will be their choice. He did mention that there are certain "protocols" being discussed which would include her being PM. Anyway, sorry for the mistake!

Just for the record -- I'm quite attached to my head.

Medvedchuk has announced he has no intentions to "commit suicide" like Transportation Minister Kirpa. Given the number of people committing suicide around here, and the example set by internet journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, I also want to go on the record -- this particular internet journalist has no intention of committing suicide.

If found beheaded, or with my favorite letter opener in my neck, please place me in the box marked "foul play." Thanks!

Photoblogging -- 28 December

My pal Sergei passed me these shots from tonight on the Square. I'm guessing "meetings" will continue until the inaguration.

Socialist Party leader and part-time quisling, Oleksandr Moroz.

What can you say -- a beautiful sight.

East and West Ukraine -- How Wide the Divide?

Someone mentioned in the comment section that the small difference between the exit polls of the Second Round and the revote show how deep-seated the split is between East and West Ukraine. They pointed out that despite increased freedom of information, people in the East didn't shift much toward Yushchenko.

On one level, I disagree. There WAS some shift in voting patterns in Yushchenko's direction. More importantly, even with 1+1 and other channels being more balanced in their coverage, there was still a huge info disparity in places like Donetsk.

This brief span wasn't nearly sufficient to undo the demonization of Yushchenko over the past two years. My interviews in the Yanukovych HQ showed me how they simply interpreted new information through their old filter.

Examples -- Yanukovych actually won the 2nd round, and the Orange Revolution was an American plot to steal it, rather than a reaction of the Ukrainian people against an attempted coup. Yushchenko poisoned himself for sympathy. Yanukovych's criminal past is actually a good thing, because hard times form strong character (literally nearly every single interviewee brought up this point 'spontaneously.')

On the other hand, I think there is validity to the idea that the small shift in voting underscores the depth of the split. Ethnic and religious differences are felt here on a level that the postmodern West has difficulty understanding. Ethnic Russian paranoia is no less powerful for being irrational.

But the biggest divide isn't one of such obvious differences, but of mentality. At Yushchenko's victory party there were no old men with Soviet medals on their chest. There were many at Yanukovych's. There is a large segment of the population who thinks Ukraine took a wrong turn with Independence and the death of Communism. They may not want the hammers & sickles back, but they do want a strong man at the top who will set things straight -- a Putin. This goes double for those who have "lost" during the post-Soviet period -- pensioners, miners, factory workers, the military and security forces, and many government bureaucrats and workers. These are people who were raised to desire order at all cost, and they see the present period as chaotic and scary. Yanukovych, for all his faults, radiates a brutish strength and promises order, however bleak.

Add in those from his region who expect economic benefits from a hometown president, ethnic Russians who have been duped into thinking Yushchenko wants to liquidate them, retirees for whom he doubled pensions (unsustainably) the month before the elections, and those who naively think he had something to do with the last two years of economic growth. This is a large number of people who genuinely and understandably support him.

There is a wide divide here in Ukraine, but it is first and foremost one of the mind.

To the Barricades!

Just saw that President Yushchenko has called us out to the Cabinet of Ministers tomorrow at 10 am. (hat tip: Hello)

Disgraced former Prime Minister Yanukovych is returning to work. He's already been fired by Parliament and refused to recognize the vote. And now that there's a new president elect, he has another reason to step down, according to the rules of both Ukraine and civilized behavior.

Anyway, I have a meeting at 10 tomorrow, but I'll try to swing by the protest straightaway after and snap some photos.

Ukraine Updates -- Victory Day +2

- The Minster for Transportation, Heorhiy Kirpa, is dead of "suicide." As the Kyiv Post points out, this is the second suspicious recent death of someone in a position to testify about the Kuchma Administrations's financial improprieties. Medvedchuk's close associate from the Ukrainian Credit Bank, Yuriy Lyakh, somehow found the will to stab himself to death with a letter opener the other day. Yeah, right.

I've heard reports that Kirpa died from multiple gunshot wounds. In which case, these suicide reports will be like something from the files of Police Squad -- "He was stabbed in the back 28 times. The worst case of suicide I've ever seen. . ."

- France has hailed Yushchenko's victory as a great step forward for democracy in Ukraine. In a rare turn of events, the French seemed genuinely pleased that democracy had taken a forward step.

- Yushchenko has invited everyone down to the Square on New Year's Eve at 23:00 for a civil inaguration, something he mentioned during the Revolution. We have a couple with whom we take turns watching classic Russian and Hollywood films. After pina coladas and Casablanca, we'll all head down to the Square for the big event. I'll post photos.

- The governor of Lugansk Oblast, Alexander Efremov, a separatist stronghold, has announced that no one in his region will organize any sort of resistance to Yushchenko. This is good.

- Yushchenko has announced his 100 Day Plan (which is infinitely more manageable than a 5-Year Plan). He's formed a working group to analyze the socioeconomic and budgetary situation post-revolution. He's also looking into some of the corrupt privatization deals made recently by Kuchma & Co. Unfortunately, I don't have anything further on the Plan. I'll let you know when I do.

- PORA plans to transform itself into a more sustainable long-term form in mid-January. My pal Anastasia Bezverkhaya gave a press conference today where she announced that PORA is shifting from a focus on clean elections into an organization dedicated to societal transformation. She and two other organizers asked for a meeting with President Yushchenko to discuss avenues for social change.

- Channel 5 is now on-air in Zaporizhia, a large, industrialized, rather Russified city. The Information Curtain is falling. . .

waving the bloody shirt

Even if Yanukovych doesn’t go to court over his alleged 4 million disenfranchised voters, he’s going to wave that bloody shirt for the next few years. His party line will be that he won, and that the election was stolen from him. This provides multiple benefits:

1. He can pose as the “people’s president” for his base.

2. It exacerbates the sense of grievance of his base supporters.

3. It increases tensions between east and west.

So long as he doesn’t grow a Unabomber beard and start teaching classes at Columbia, there isn’t a down-side to this thing.

UPDATE: Just noticed that Yanu is indeed taking the election results to the Supreme Court. I'll amend the opening paragraph -- even if he fails in court, he's going to wave the bloody shirt for a long time.

Known by One’s Friends

The “president” of Kyrgyzstan has warned the West not to support any similar democratic revolution in his country during the upcoming elections in October.

Meanwhile, the strongman “president” of Uzbekistan -- Islam Karimov – has called on the world community to denounce the Orange Revolution. He needs to give his PR team a bonus – this is undoubtedly a brilliant strategy which will find a HUGE positive response in influential places like Syria, Turkmenistan and Lower West Wagadoogoo.

Money quote: “It is unacceptable to use democracy to take over power. . .” He thinks we should follow his preferred method, I suppose – big guns.

The CIS is thus far not recognizing the legitimacy of the Ukrainian elections. This contrasts a bit with Putin’s instantaneous, multiple congratulations of Yanukovych after the second round of voting.

Also, four democracy activists were arrested yesterday in Belarus for wearing orange ribbons. One of them is still in custody.

Virtually the only factions to have supported Yanukovych’s attempted power grab were China, the Stan Brothers of Central Asia, Putin, Yanukovych’s mother, and the occasional horse’s ass like Jonathan Steele.

You can tell a lot about a person by the friends he keeps.

Moroz – Socialist Prima Donna

While I never liked his socialism, I respected Moroz over the years as a relatively upfront sort of guy. But this election cycle has wrecked that. First was his independent bid during the first round that divided the Opposition (compare this with Yulia’s principled unity ticket with Yushchenko.) Then came his monomania about immediate constitutional reform.

Okay, we just won the election. This is a time for jubilation. What does this prima donna do? He says that he’s open to joining the Opposition to Yushchenko in the parliament, depending on how things go.

Have some class, man. Wait a week, then start your grubby politicking again.

On a more positive note, he did offer to help Yushchenko in any attempts reconcile east and west Ukraine.

To the Victor (Yushchenko) Go the Spoils

Obozrevatel is
Reporting that some big, big names in the oligarch camp are coming to pay homage to the new president. Examples include Leonid Derkach, from the Pinchuk-Derkach clan and Hryroriy Surkis, from the Medvedchuk-Surkis clan. Reports have these Kuchma cronies coming with open hands, hoping for positions in the new administration.

Undoubtedly, given the nature of things here, some compromises will have to be made with dodgy people. But not people like this. Here’s hoping that Yushchenko cleans house.

No “Blue Revolution”

Yanukovych’s point man, Taras Chornovil, has announced that they won’t try to imitate the Orange Revolution. It was cute how he portrayed this as a decision of the Yanukovych camp, rather than an acceptance of reality – they couldn’t pull one off. There just isn’t the sort of love for Yanukovych that would make people stand in the freezing cold for a month. Lest anyone think I’m merely being partisan, I’ll point out that the Yanu camp had warned the Kiev city administration to expect 50,000 protesters after the election. But they seem to have bowed to reality.

Ominously, Chornovil said “We will defend our rights by judicial methods.” Like I said last night after the Shufrych press conference, I don’t think this is over yet.

Almost Official.

With 99,02% of the votes counted, the official count is 52,22% Yushchenko; 43, 99% Yanukovych. Given that every exit poll showed a higher margin of victory, it looks like Tymoshenko’s prediction yesterday was accurate – the Yanukovych team’s falsifications were high enough to narrow the margin of victory, but not enough to swing the election.

Photoblogging -- Victory Night!

This afternoon:

Half of the team that brought you Razom Nas Bagato.

Slavic, from Okean Elzi.

Dame Yulia makes her entrance. . .

At the Yanukovych camp:

Friendly opponents outside the Yanukovych HQ. There were several "confrontations" while I was out there, and all of them were good-natured.

Shufrych tells stories about disenfranchised invalids. I'm fascinated that I live in a country of 48 million people where a full 6 million are now alleged to be invalids. Even more interesting, there are only about 3 wheelchair ramps in the whole country. One wonders how these people survive.

"Festive" isn't the first adjective I'd choose to describe the atmosphere at the Yanukovych HQ.

Tonight:

The face of victory.

President and Mrs. Yushchenko at the world's shortest press conference.

Probably one of my last looks at the tent city before it fades into history. What a month it's been!

Missed Yushchenko, but not all the fun. . .

About five minutes after he told us all to go to Maidan, Yushchenko was already there giving his victory speech. Those of us who didn't have a fast car waiting outside ended up watching it at the HQ instead.

In the end though, Dan and I ended up hanging out on the Square til about four am. People were still partying as we left.

I'm not sure if it's over yet, but right now I'm too tired to care. We won. We won big. That's enough for tonight. I'm going to post some photos and hit the rack.

The world's shortest press conference.

Okay, that was the shortest press conference in history. Yushchenko said a few words, and was joined on-stage by Yulia, Kinakh and Moroz. He said a few words, mainly about how cool it is to be Ukrainian now, and then told us all to go to the Square.

This is as it should be. The people in Independence Square have earned the right to hear his victory speech first.

Orange Ukraine and I are heading there now, and I'll fill you in a couple of hours on all the latest.

They're blasting Razom Nas Bagato loud enough to make my pants shake in time to the beat, everybody's dancing, and the "press conference" has finally turned into a proper party.

HEY -- Be sure to check out Tulip Girl for more Ukraine updates. . .

Back at Yushchenko HQ

Just got back to Yushchenko's shtab, and it's a swingin' shindig. Two giant birds, the vesyoli yaitsa are on-stage. This goes back to an infamous egging of Yanukovych during the campaign. Picture Alvin and the Chipmunks, only with high-pitched, annoying voices. Well, higher-pitched and more annoying. One drink wasn't enough to prepare me for this.

There are at least twice as many people here as when I left.

I sat through the Shufrych press conference at Yanukovych's place. He's claiming that there are six million invalids in Ukraine, and only 600,000 were able to vote. At first blush this seems to be a set-up for declaring the results invalid and getting the court to order a revote. This strategy was telegraphed by Yanukovych pushing to have the Constitutional Court kick out the anti-home-voting provisions of the electoral reform.

The numbers don't add up, given the stats I saw pre-election. There was word even then that he was puffing up the number of invalids. More later on this.

Got some good interviews with Yanukovych people. Everyone was very friendly, I want to be quick to say. Unhappy, but friendly. The most interesting answers I got were on "Who poisoned Yushchenko?" No one believed it was Kuchma or Yanukovych.

Top responses:

1. Yushchenko poisoned himself for sympathy.
2. Yushchenko's a drunk and this was an alcoholic reaction.
3. Yushchenko ate bad mushrooms.
4. No one poisoned him. There's just bad ecology in Ukraine, and everyone has dioxin in their system.

two cheers for yanukovych

arrived a few minutes ago at yanukovych hq. he scores points on two fronts. firstly, nice flatscreen monitors in the press center.

secondly, and more significantly, i scored a respectable stoli martini at the bar.

he loses points because the drinks aren't comped and i can't get the blasted shift key to work on this comp.

some slightly less shallow observations -- not much happening here. he spoke awhile back, and nothing is on-stage atm. there are a handful of his supporters outside waving flags. the mood inside is flatlined.

security is being run not by private supporters, as at yushchenko's hq, but by ministry of internal affairs special troops -- specifically, the titans.

demographics would be another big difference between the two spots -- the age differential between the yanukovych and yushchenko camps is about commeasurate with the difference in exit poll results.

off to yanukovych HQ.

I'm off to Yanukovych's HQ for a bit. Wanted first to add an important bit from Zinchenko:

He said that the "managerial elite" of the Ukrainian government will change under Yushchenko. It will be much younger, because young people were at the forefront of the social and cultural revolution.

This is interesting, because it follows almost verbatim a press release demanding the same from Yuschenko. I remembering editing it for the activists during the Revolution, at least two weeks ago. This talking point was added to Zinchenko's speech so that the activists would know they weren't forgotten now that victory is won.

Zinchenko Speaks

Zinchenko, Yushchenko's campaign manager, is speaking right now. Some points:

1. 80% of voters were willing to answer exit pollers. This is up 25% from the last round. It's wonderful how much people's fear has lifted here.

2. Exit poll averages have Yushchenko up 19.5%.

3. Asked about action against the leaders of the Kharkiv and Lugansk regions for their separatist actions -- he answered that these weren't merely political but criminal actions. And so it is a genuine matter for the General Prosecutor's office.

4. The biggest thing he said was said as a private politician, not as head of Yush campaign. He called not merely for Constitutional Reform, but for a new constitution altogether. He said that as society here has changed so massively, it was wise for the constitution to change fundamentally as well.

5. Asked about the possibility of a "Blue Revolution", he said it was naive of Yanukovych to think he could manufacture something like that. As he said, the Orange Revolution came from the people, not from the Yushchenko campaign. He added beautifully that the revolution started first not in the Square, but in the minds of the people, and that no such special conditions exist on the Yanukovych side.

Victory Party Updates

Tartak was just followed on-stage by a band from Lviv called Korolivskiy Zaitsi. One of Yushchenko's strengths throughout the election has been that the artistic community has been almost monolithically in support of him. Though I'm not sure that "artistic" and the "Korolivskiy Zaitsi" belong in the same paragraph. . .

I'm working on a vicious headache right now, and a little disillusioned with Yushchenko. If he's serious about moving Ukraine toward the West, free cocktails at victory parties would be a good start. A daquiri or three would really make this headache thing go a lot smoother.

Just got interviewed by Radio Free Europe. The correspondent was from Belarus. We parted hoping to meet next in Minks for another Revolution. :-)

Exit Polls

Just saw the results from the National Exit Poll and another one, I think Monitoring Ukraine -- National had Yush up 16 points. The other put him at 58-38% over Yanukovych. Deja vu.

This goes beyond a mandate. In poli sci parlance, this is called a "spanking."

Liveblogging from Yushchenko HQ

Yushchenko has an ongoing "Press Conference" here at the HQ until 2 am. It's like a million other victory parties I've attended, but by calling it a press conference they don't have to spring for hors d'oeuvres or an open bar. More's the pity, that's half the reason to attend. . .

I'm going to try liveblogging this thing as much as I can tonight -- computer access is limited here at HQ. It's been great so far. I got great photos of Slavic from Okean Elzi and the guys who wrote Razom Nas Bagato. And brilliant shots of Dame Yulia -- both during her entrance and the press conference. She was giddy during this thing in a way I've never seen her before. At least one person has no doubt we're going to win tonight.

Some highlights from her meeting with the press:

1. She plans to go to Eastern Ukraine around the 29th to meet with miners and have a drink with them. She wants them to see that she and Yushchenko don't eat children or hate Russians. She told the Russian people directly to "not be afraid." She promised that "brilliant Russian literature" will still be taught in schools even under President Yushchenko, and that Russians will live here without any problems.

2. There are still corrupt aspects to today's elections, but not of a level that will affect the overall result -- only the margin of victory.

3. It'll be at least ten years til President Tymoshenko -- she's sure that Yush will succeed to two terms. She also says that their coalition will have a long future together.

4. In a question that underscores the ethnic tensions of the region, a questioner from Azerbaijan said that Tymoshenko is very popular there, but that people worry because there are rumors that she has Armenian ancestors.

Yulia said that her roots are in Latvia and Ukraine, and she can't imagine her presence will cause any tensions in the Caucasus.

5. She touched on reprivatization (redoing some of the corrupt privatization schemes), and left the door open to that. She promised an orderly, civilized process. She also promised to make government more efficient and said that she is neither anti-market nor a market fundamentalist (showing her tendency toward economic populism. . .)

Election Day! Again.

I'm off to Yushchenko HQ for election day (the OSCE somehow thought I was too partisan and wouldn't let me officially observe. Go fig.) There's a good line-up of events for this afternoon and evening, and Orange Ukraine and I will bring you a run-down tonight.

Pray for a free and open election. We did that in church this morning, along with a prayer that it would be the last election. This being Eastern Europe, I felt the need to remind God under my breath that we meant the last election this year, not in general. :-)

Orange Christmas

... to the tune of 'White Christmas'

I'm dreaming of an orange Christmas
Just like one I've never known
When the treetops glisten
and children listen
to hear, the chants of Yush-chen-ko!

I'm dreaming of a orange Christmas
at every demo I attend
may the voting be trans-par-ent
and may Yush-chen-ko be president!

Hat Tip: The Liberal Media

Senseless Suffering

This afternoon, I watched a group of sparrows and crows among the denuded, snow-covered birch trees outside our flat. The scene evoked for me the bleakness of the Ukrainian winter. Growing up in the subtropics, I remember the shock of my first winter here. It wasn't the cold, or even the lack of sunshine that got me -- it was the sensory deprivation.

Emerging out into a winter's day puts one into a sort of sensory cocoon. The eyes have to be satisfied with a palette of whites and grays. Sounds seem sluggish in the cold, and are quickly lost to the wind howling between twenty-story apartment blocks. The only scent with the capacity to defeat cold is car exhaust. As for the tactile sense, this is reduced to the burning ache of freezing fingertips.

I've never studied in-depth the relation of climate to culture, but spending half of life in such a condition is bound to affect one's view of the world.

Photoblogging -- Christmas Eve!

A couple of views from the neighborhood. . .

I buy chickens from the sidewalk ladies on the way home from the metro. A couple of times I've bought rabbits. They leave a paw on so you can be sure you aren't buying muskrat.

We saw several "palms" like this in Egypt, so we were glad when they put one in down the street. But it can be a little disconcerting at night -- a glowing, pulsating red palm tree in the snow.

We went with a group of friends to see the The Nutcracker tonight. It wasn't the national company, so the costumes and sets suffered a bit. But the level of dance was still very high. The choreography was a bit suspect, however -- I imagine the quasi-breakdancing moves in the Arabian Dance were added after Tchaikovsky's time.

Watching the dancers, I was again amazed at the potential of the human body. And again reminded that in spite of its discontents, civilization is a great improvement over the alternatives. . .

Ukraine Update -- 24 Dec

- An amazing 12,500+ foreign observers have been approved by the Central Election Commission. This is a fabulous surprise for those of us who were worried about a possible Christmas spoiler effect. The OSCE, for example, has doubled their contingent from the second round of voting.

- If new parliamentary elections were held today, the composition of the Rada would change radically. Yushchenko's party would receive 38.8% of the vote, Yanukovych's Regions Party would receive about 24%, the Socialists and the Communists each come in with about 5-6%, and Tymoschenko gets 3%. These would be the only parties to make the 3% cut-off and win seats.

This would have a huge effect on the politics of the oligarchs, of course. Medvedchuk would lose the influence of his Social-Dem party, and Kuchma's clan would also be without a viable parliamentary surrogate. The Donetsk clan would be sitting atop the only game in town -- the Regions Party. If Yanukovych plays his cards right, he's going to be a very big man on his side of the aisle, even while losing the election.

Obviously, the other oligarch parties won't just sit and let this happen. There will be consolidations and changes. For example, the National Dems and the Workers Parties just merged today, to offset defections. Also, a new party is being formed called "Novaya Demokratiya". The founder describes it as to the right of the Socialists but to the left of the moderate wing of Yushcheko's bloc. It's expected to align with Yanukovych's people if it wins a place in the next parliamentary elections.

- Putin is whining that the West is trying to steal the election he already stole fair and square.

Russian "Orthodoxy" and the Elections

MSNBC has a fascinating article on religion and the Ukrainian elections. It states clearly a lot of what I've been saying along the way -- the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate is one of the most unreconstructedly Soviet institutions in the country. Which makes sense, since its hierarchy was largely Communist, and hasn't changed awfully since the fall of the Wall.

Examples:

"If you are a believer, you are for Yanukovich. To stand for Yanukovich is to stand for orthodoxy. We must protect from the demons in the West," Brother Valeri said in fluent Russian.

Another clergyman, Father Adam, says prayers should be said for both men. "The church prays for Yanukovich so you have to pray for God to bless him. He is a believer. For Yushchenko, you pray to bring him back into the circle of believers." (emphasis mine)

Can you imagine? This bearded hypocrite actually imagines that he can push Yushchenko outside the circle of the Saved simply because he doesn't like his politics? And Yanukovych is a believer? A believer in what, praytell -- graft, robbery, poisoning, fraud, false arrest, lying and abuse of power?

It's time for a Reformation in Ukraine.

Ukraine Updates -- 23 December

Yanukovych and Weapons -- this is such a serious thing, I wanted to wait for stronger confirmation than Maidan. Kyiv Post is now reporting on the senior SBU intel officer's speech about Yanukovych and Russian weapon purchases.

"30 groups of 30 men have already been formed and an unnamed Berkut (elite police force) officer will command the group of 900 men, which has been formed using former convicts, sportsmen and other irregulars. They will be armed with 100 rifles, 90 hand grenades and 25 kilograms of the explosive trotyl, Omelchenko said."

Granted, he belongs to Tymoschenko's bloc. But he IS in a position to know, and these are pretty specific allegations, not vague comments about possible violence.

A Yanukovych Rally on Independence Square yesterday. Several hundred attended -- HUGE by Yanukovych standards. It was organized by the Russian Orthodox Church. To borrow a thought from Yushchenko, one wonders how they get around that silly "Thou Shalt Not Steal" thing. Yanukovych's cronies have stolen half the country's factories, and he himself stole 3 million votes. Maybe that Commandment reads differently in Old Slavonic. . .

The Debates -- Yushchenko is too nice, so he didn't deliver the redheaded-stepchild-style beating that he could have. But he did win the debates handily, according to political scientists, TV viewers, and anyone with eyes and ears. This is good, because 85% of the TV viewing audience was tuned in to the debates.

Separatism -- Yanukovych has pledged to fight against the breakup of Ukraine. *pause for derisive laughter* Whatever.

Orange Square has opened up on Odessa's very cool pedestrian street -- Derebasovskaya. Yushchenko's people organized it, and it'll run until the 24th. It features open debates between Yushchenko and yanukovych supporters, so the people of this relatively "Blue" city can hear and decide for themselves.

A Yes! Yushchenko! flag on Mt. Kilimanjaro -- it's things like this that show the difference between the candidate. Where are the spontaneous, courageous acts of the Yanukovych supporters? As we've seen time and again, love is the great motivator of the Orange Revolution.

Happy Anniversary, Ukraine!

Tonight was the one month anniversary of the Orange Revolution, and everyone turned out on the Square to celebrate. My friends and I passed out about three thousand brochures with Scriptures about just and honest government. It also contained a short piece on the first Orange Revolution -- the Reformation (orange is the national color of Holland and Protestantism to this day) and the "second" Orange Revolution in Ukraine. We expressed solidarity with the people's struggle to end corruption in high places.

I'll have some pics for you all tomorrow. It was a lot of fun, but freezing. I almost hope Yanukovych's threatened army comes here -- I'll start a betting pool for how long they last in these temperatures.

But enough about him -- tonight was a night for celebration. What a difference a month makes.

Russia's Declension Continues

Freedom House just announced that Russia has declined from "Partly Free" to "Not Free". They join such illustrious company as Cambodia, Algeria, Cuba, Syria and Zimbabwe. Mama Putin must be so proud.

This only confirms what we already knew, but it's stark to see it in written black and white. Things have come full circle: the repression of the Soviet Era, the first glimmers of hope in the mid-80s, the euphoria of the early 90's, and now this. Felix Dzerzhinsky has a statue again in Moscow, and the KGBisti are firmly in power once more. The old Russian worship of power seems to ensure high approval ratings for Putin, so long as oil prices keep the economy relatively healthy.

At least the bright and free-thinking can emigrate to their newly-liberated neighbors -- Georgia and Ukraine. We'll be glad to have them.

For the Well-Dressed Revolutionary

When you revolutionize -- accessorize! Check out the lovely and talented TulipGirl for more Orange paraphenalia.

Dirty Money.

For a look at the incestuous, pervasive nature of the oligarchic system, check out this Washingtontimes.com article about Yushchenko's poisoning, and the Kuchma spin machine. Note that it was oligarch Pinchuk, Kuchma's son-in-law, who was the point man. Notice also how their dirty money corrupts everyone who comes close to them.

And while I love the French, I really do, why do they always seem to be backing the bad guys?

Yanukovych's Brinkmanship

Each day brings some fresh bit of saber rattling or general weirdness from Yanukovych. Today he was saying that it's possible that Ukraine won't split merely into two sections, but could instead end up with a domino effect which will remake the maps of both Europe and Russia. THAT sounds like a guy who wants to govern the country. . .

More ominously, he's claiming 35,000 enlistees for his army of protesters which is supposed to descend on Kiev. He seems to want to pull his own "Blue Revolution."

Here's a quote from Hotline:

"Люди, которые голосовали за меня, никогда его (Ющенко) не признают. Они об этом говорят уже сейчас" . . . По его словам, даже если Ющенко победит на выборах, "он никогда не станет президентом Украины".

To summarize, the people who are voting for him will never recognize Yushchenko as president. They're saying that right now. And even if Yushchenko wins the elections, he'll never become the president of Ukraine.

My personal take is that this idea of an invasion of Independence Square is an election tactic. Even with Akhmetov's money I can't see them maintaining such mercenaries in Kiev for any length of time in the present bitterly cold weather.

My Ukrainian friends see things differently -- they think the idea is to create anarchic conditions where Kuchma can remain in office. Who's to say?

Side note: Reports are in from the Yushchenko and Yanukovych rallies in Kharkiv -- word is that they were equal in size, but that Yanukovych's supporters were very often out-of-towners. An impressive showing for Yushchenko -- especially if you believe the nonsense about the entire east being Yanukovych territory.

Ukraine Update -- 16 December

- As of today, 6482 official observers are registered. If memory serves, the OSCE alone has nearly a thousand, which beats their previous record of 600 observers for a single election. This is good, since I was worried about things being so close to Christmas. Nice to know there are enough Scrooges in the world to cover this election. . .

- Hotline is reporting that MP Taniuk claims there are two buses of Donestk people riding around Sumy oblast buying up death certificates. If these names were then used to vote, it would allow them to invalidate Yushchenko precints by claiming vote fraud.

- There's going to be a children's "tent city" set up near the adult one on Kreshatik Street on 19 December. Omelchenko and Yushchenko are doing this in conjunction with the art center "Krisha". The children are going to write letters to the future president, and then send them to Saint Nicholas with dozens of balloon angels. Saint Nick will pass them on to the new president. The art center is also doing another project -- decorating 25-40 tents.

It's nice to live in a place where the cultural elites actually like their country.

- Another example of the stupid, official harrassment that the Opposition constantly faces: Yushchenko's plane was denied permission to land today at Mariupl Airport. This is at least the fourth time this has happened this year. I remember an earlier incident where he was turned away from three airports and finally had to drive into his campaign rally from a far-off town.

- Yushchenko continues to campaign like a winner. He and Yanukovych were both in Kharkiv, which is ostensibly still Yanukovych territory. Yanukovych isn't doing anything in Yushchenko's base at all, while an orange "friendship train" of cars is caravaning through Blue Country. They just did a concert in Odessa, picked up 150 more vehicles, and are continuing on to Kherson.

The two candidates' rhetoric also couldn't be more different -- Yushchenko talking about the future and about unity, Yanukovych lobbing ever-weirder insults and accusations and complaining about the democracy activists forcing a revote.

Poroshenko -- the Opposition's mini-Oligarch

When people want to make a moral equivalency argument between Yushchenko and Yanukovych, they inevitably point to Poroshenko, the confectionary magnate and key Opposition figure. Given that Ukraine not long ago ranked as the 3rd most corrupt country on the planet, he's undoubtedly guilty of some things -- you couldn't survive otherwise. But he HAS been a strong advocate for transparency in both business and government, and a key ally to the democracy movement. For instance, he's the owner of the indispensible TV Channel 5.

Kyiv Post has a wonderful article on him today. A few quotes really stood out:

"I'm convinced that one should never use state power to realize one's own interests. . ."

"My sons and daughters' lives shouldn't depend on who the president of the country is."

The last is my favorite, because it summarizes the difference between life in the West, and life here: Ukraine has long suffered under the rule of capricious men, rather than the rule of law.

I also liked this statement:

"'Poroshenko is the most educated oligarch and a moderate politician in Yushchenko's circle,' said Mikhail Pohrebinsky, another political analyst, who is closely associated with Kuchma."

About that American government money. . .

Some things to consider:

1. This was spent primarily through NGOs that spread democratic ideals and promote clean and open elections. Envelopes of cash weren't being stuffed in Yushchenko's pockets.

2. This was not a covert CIA operation. These NGOs were operating with the blessing of the Kuchma administration.

3. Why is it always American money? How is it that Dutch, British, Danish, etc., money never comes up? Maybe because Duch-baiting doesn't have the same smear effect on the Opposition as American-baiting? Because the fact is, many Western countries were promoting democracy in Ukraine, not just the USA. But all we hear about is American money.

Kleptocratic crack-up continues concurrently with Yanukovych's quixotic campaign contra Kuchma.

The Oligarchs are cracking themselves up these days. Examples:

1. In a major turn of events, hatchetman Presidential Head of Administration Medvedchuk has resigned. This is not a random event. The co-head of the Kiev clan/ media magnate/ one of the biggest oligarchs in Ukraine has left his very public position at Kuchma's side, though Kuchma hasn't yet signed the resignation. Medvedchuk seems to be siding with Yanukovych in the intra-faction split. Interestingly, Yuri Lyakh, one of Medvedchuk's inner circle and the head of the Ukrainian Credit Bank, was found in his office this month with his throat cut.

2. Another Yanukovych-aligned party is imploding. A National-Democratic Party leader, Evgeniy Kushnarev has left the NDP to form a new party. Several other members are now supporting Yushchenko.

3. The Trudovaya Ukraina Party, which supports Yanukovych, has lost 18 members since December 3rd. Many have joined Yushchenko's Nasha Ukraina bloc. As of today, Trudovaya has only twelve MPs left, and fourteen are needed to preserve one's status as an official fraktsiya in the Parliament. The rump party may have to fold into another, larger party.

4. Yanukovych has declared himself "very disappointed" with Kuchma, and called him a coward. He's ticked that Kuchma sold him out during the Orange Revolution by agreeing to new elections.

Big news from Ukraine today

- HUGE NEWS. Following close on confirmation of Yushchenko's poisoning comes solid reports that Yanukovych requested a military crackdown against the Orange protesters. These news flashes aren't exactly helping Yanukovych with middle-of-the-road voters. . .

- Yushchenko's camp announces that national unity will be a major theme of this campaign period. The motto Mir Vam -- Peace to You -- appeared back when the talk of separatism began, and it's going to be a popular one in coming days.

- Groups of Yushchenko supporters are following on the heels of PORA (I'm tempted to say 'as usual') and going into the eastern and southern regions to reach out to Yanukovych's base.

- Maidan is reporting on the preparations for vote fraud in the Lughansk region.

- Nearly 4,000 official observers have been registered with the Central Elections Commission.

Solid Gold Ludmilla -- New song from the Revolution!

Some enterprising young Opposition type has put together a GREAT dance mix from Ludmilla Yanukovych's now-infamous Orange Orgy speech. Not only does it feature a cool beat, but also samples from the movie version of Bulgakov's Heart of a Dog. Check it out!

Partying like its 1988

Two of my yellow-haired monkeys, Reagan and Calvin, go to a local detskiy cad -- kindergarten. They had an utrenik today, a sort of musical presentation thing. It was fun, and brought with it a sort of time-warp quality. The decorations, music, themes and maudlin sentimentality were straight out of the Soviet Era. I think every single woodland creature was crying at some point, and needed the help of his comrades to cheer up.

But my little comrades DID look awfully cute as Burattinos -- Russian Pinocchios.

Just glad he's on our side. . .

Vitali Klitschko drops Danny Williams like a bad habit. The orange scarf he's wearing takes some of the pain out of Andrei Shevchenko backing Yanukovych. . .

Photo cred: Yahoo.com

Yanukovych -- Left, Right or Nowhere?

WRY asked a good question in the comments section:

"Isn't Yakunovych counted as of the left, in a sort of conservative communist way?"

In one sense, sure. . . He definitely inherited the Communist approach to leadership. Also, as WRY pointed out, a lot of the people longing for the glory days of the USSR are backing him.

But in other senses, it would be unjust to pin someone like Yanukovych on the Left. I don't think either the Right or the Left can fairly be saddled with a goat like him.

He's no Leftist, in that he and his ilk are utterly non-ideological. Further, they have no commitment to nationalizing the economy or social or economic levelling.

He's no conservative, because that would require belief in the rule of law, the sanctity of contracts, and decentralized government.

I use two terms when trying to explain the old system here -- politico-economic tribalism and Pragmatic Kleptocracy.

Politico-economic tribalism captures the clan-based spoils system of Ukraine. When you hear about the oligarchs, you're probably imagining a few marquee names like Pinchuk or Akhmetov. But the system is more complex than that. For example, Kuchma's group, the Dnepropetrovsk Clan, contains about 200 businessmen. The purpose of government is to bring home spoils for your tribe, through legislation, subsidies, and sweetheart privatization deals.

Pragmatic Kleptocracy points up the rule-by-thieves nature of the system, and its total lack of principle, ideology or even ideas.

Whether it be the fact of modern Robber Barons or the shades of Communist repression they evoke, there's something for both good Leftists and Conservatives to hate in the oligarchs.

the Party's over

One of the underreported stories of the 2004 elections here in Ukraine was the continued implosion of the Left. The highest-polling Leftist was Moroz at 5.83% -- ironic, in that he's a member of the largely free-market opposition.

The big news may come in the 2006 parliamentary elections. With the new system of total proportional voting, a party will need 4% to gain a place in the Rada. If present trends continue, you really might see a Ukrainian government devoid of Communists. A tragedy, undoubtedly.

Ukraine Update

- Another reason Ukraine is wonderful -- ballet and opera tickets for less than a dollar. We bought tickets today to the Christmas Eve showing of The Nutcracker at the National Opera for the whole family. It cost about five dollars. It's nice to be in a place where theatre is still considered a popular art form.

- Another reason Yushchenko is wonderful -- he has class:

"I want to tell you, over the last three weeks, you have seen a different country, a different nation," he said. "The regime that was in place for 14 years in the Ukraine is now living its last days."

Speaking of his poisoning:

"I don't want this factor to influence the election in some way – either as a plus or a minus. . . This question will require a great deal of time and serious investigation. Let us do it after the election – today is not the moment."

- Yanukovych, on the other hand, has NO class.

"While he wouldn't comment directly on the allegations, Yanukovych called Yushchenko a boaster and a coward, adding he looked forward to beating Yushchenko in the election."

- Another sign the Establishment is eating itself -- Yanukovych's campaign manager claims that all the election falsifications were done by Kuchma as a way to discredit Yanukovych and win himself another term.

- An Opposition paper is reporting that Pinchuk, oligarch and son-in-law to President Kuchma, gave a large grant to the doctor who treated Yushchenko. The word is that this doctor has been fired by the hospital for spinning his reports about the poisoning incident. I haven't seen any Western sources covering this, so I'm waiting to report it as fact. But they've missed a lot along the way, so that doesn't make me suspect the story either.

happy transitions. . .

Tomorrow I'll be taking Le Sabot back to its regularly scheduled program of politics, theology, literature, fear and whimsy. BUT, I'll also be doing at least one update daily daily on political developments here in Ukraine. So come for the Ukraine stuff, and stay for the bloggy goodness. . .

Ukraine Updates. . .

- Obozrevatel is reporting that two Russian men were arrested back on 21 November in a bombing attempt on Yushchenko's headquarters. According to the article, the men claim to have been hired by an unknown person, and given three kilos of plastique and a remote detonator.

The source is People's Deputy Vladimir Stretovich, who's a representative for the parliamentary committee for "Questions about the Fight Against Organized Crime and Corruption."

- Russia spent 6 times more money during the Ukrainian presidential campaign than the United States. Russia's money went rather directly to one candidate. America's was mostly spent on ensuring free and open elections through NGOs. Remember this the next time some chucklehead starts spouting tin-foil hat theories about how America stole the elections here.

- Tymoshenko has offered some good advice for Yushchenko (again). Her priorities of work:

1. Ensuring a free mass media.
2. Reform the justice system.
3. Free economic culture from administrative influence and encourage formation of small and medium-sized businesses.

This last is encouraging to hear, because she tends toward economic populism. . .

- Kyiv Post has a great article on the Zubr Movement and the large number of Belarussian activists here in Kiev. Could Lukashenko be the next autocrat to fall?

- Yushchenko says that the crimes of the past decade will be prosecuted. After talk of a pardon for Kuchma,this is very good news. Ukraine is not a country that deals well with facing up to the past -- you could live here a long time and never hear how the Soviet system killed several million Ukrainians. That's down the memory hole somehow. So it would be a positive step to have a reckoning of the past decade -- air out the filth and then move forward.

Yes, Virginia -- Yushchenko was poisoned.

It's finally official -- they tried to kill Yushchenko.

Meanwhile, 5 PORA activists tried to set up a couple of tents in Donetsk. Fifty thugs attacked and beat them. Compare that to the hundreds of Yanukovych supporters who were fed and sheltered by the orange people here in Kiev. Or the solitary people with blue ribbons who walked freely downtown among a hundred thousand Yushchenko fans without ever being troubled.

People say there are large differences between the rest of the country and the eastern section -- and they're right. But the difference has a lot less to do with language, and a lot more to do with civilization.

Ack! Real life intrudes. . .

Check back tomorrow for more bloggy goodness and lots of updates on Ukraine.

Opportunity for Expats in Ukraine -- Become an Election Observer!

I just received an email from a fellow with a grassroots organization here in Kiev which is organizing election observation for the next round. They're hoping to get 500 volunteers from the expat community. They have a .pdf application that needs to be filled out and mailed in. If you can't volunteer, they're also raising funds to buy video equipment for the observers.

Here's the contact info:

Yarema Shulakewych
Ukrainian Canadian Congress - Kyiv
fax: +38-044-272-4715 (will be activated on Monday Dec. 6)
e-mail: Yarema2@hotmail.com

DEFINITELY worth looking into.

Happenings. . .

- Channel 1+1 is going to host presidential debates either on the 21st, 22nd or 23rd of December.

- Kuchma accepted the resignation of the Prosecutor-General -- a key Opposition demand. Apparently no word yet on his replacement.

- Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, always in the forefront of the Revolution, is putting together a Museum of the Orange Revolution.

- My worries about the election being right after Christmas proved unfounded. Canada alone is sending 1,000 election observers, and the US at least a hundred. For those who don't follow Ukrainian migration patterns, Canada is home to a huge portion of the Diaspora. Germany is sending 100 as well.

- Zinchenko gave a press conference today, outlining Yushchenko's campaign strategy. It's telling that Yushchenko will be focusing on "blue" areas, which means he feels his base is secure.

- Kivalov, the disgraced former head of the Central Elections Committee, also gave a press conference. He's going to write a book, and says he believes the results of the next round of voting will be about the same as the last. He added that he also believes in sugar-plum fairies.

- The mayor of Sumy may lose his job, thanks to a planned referendum. He was aggressively involved in Pro-Yanukovych election fraud, and the city deputies are discussing his removal.

- PORA congratulated striking students and sent them back to school today.

- A democracy activist from Serbia was stopped at the Ukrainian border and had his passport stamped "No entry until 3,000 AD." Another one for the only-in-Ukraine file.

Putin's ambitions. . .

Russia announced the other day that it's developed a hypersonic missile, and that it's working on mobilizing its biggest ICBM and various other military programs. In situations like Iraq and Ukraine, they seem almost to be angling for a new Cold War with the United States.

So it seems only sporting to remind Putin what happened the last time they tried that -- bankruptcy and a complete collapse of their system of government. Why tangle with a country that has a ten trillion dollar economy? I think Putin should pick on someone his own size, so to speak. Likesay, Brazil, whose economy is only about $100 billion larger than Russia's.

A region-wide Front for Democracy. . .

The best part of tonight was doing the Pogo to Tartak with a mixed group of about ten Georgian and Armenian activists. They were cool, and totally without the traditional Ukrainian reserve toward strangers.

"Benjamin", Niko and Vanya

Niko explained to me why he likes America: "Because they know the taste of freedom. And when a person knows freedom, they want other people to be free."

It's the same thing I've noticed with my Iranian dissident friends, and the people in the tent camps -- the people I know who are the most strongly oppressed are the ones with the most outspoken affection for the United States. This is my personal observation, and not a statement of a universal law, so don't bother flaming me over it.

It was beautiful when they took their Georgian and Armenian flags and joined forces with an Azerbaijani and Russian group. Their flags waved together in the night sky. Imagine that -- Russians and Georgians / Armenians and Azerbaijani -- two groups of national enemies, joining forces for democracy. Watching that, I think that the talk of a region-wide move toward democracy just might really happen.

Victory Night at Independence Square

All qualms about constitutional reform aside, it was amazing being out on the Square tonight with everybody, celebrating victory. I was so cheery, even Moroz's grandstanding couldn't make me mutter darkly about 30 pieces of silver.

I think tonight will be the last mass gathering on the Square as a protest group. The next time we gather, it'll be to support Yushchenko's presidential campaign. So there was something bittersweet to it all for me, an understanding that something amazing is drawing to a close. But that feeling was lost quickly in the energy of the crowd. Ukraine has been forever changed by this experience, and people know it.

The crowd was the largest I've seen since the early days of the Revolution. Here's a shot from close to the stage:

This guy is having fun with Ludmilla Yanukovych's rant where she claimed that all the boots on the Square were from the Americans, and that people were injecting the oranges with narcotics. You see this schtick everywhere downtown:

In the middle of all the tumult and celebration, this woman's face really stood out for me:

Yanukovych announces a new coalition!

At a press conference today, Prime Minister Yanukovych announced that he was entering into a partnership with OJ Simpson. Details are still sketchy, but word is that he's pledged to help OJ find Nicole's killer, while OJ will lend his formidable investigative skills to tracking down the "real poisoner."

Photoblogging, 8 Dec 2004

Striking students from Kyiv-Mohyla Academy marching for democracy.

A blurry shot of the PORA leadership.

Chow time in the tent camp.

Proportional Voting -- Not sexy, but yet still significant

I've seen very little written about this yet, but the switch to proportional voting is a silver lining in the constitutional reforms. The previous system was thus:

Half the Rada seats: The various parties ran either individually or in blocs. They received seats in proportion to the percentage of the vote they received.

The other half: Apportioned through individual "single-mandate" district voting. This allowed local oligarchs and bosses to swing these wildly. These single-mandate districts explain why Kuchma's people won half the vote in the last election that Yushchenko did, yet still had a majority at the end. They simply muscled their way into the single-mandate seats.

As I understand things, in the new system it will ALL be proportional -- that is, seats given by percentage of the total vote. Which means that if Yushchenko maintains his high popularity, he'll have a much friendlier parliament to deal with in 2006.

The blockade at the Cabinet of Ministers is definitely lifted

I swung by tonight on my way back from the Square. The main gates were open, though many protesters remain in the area. And the line of metal tub drummers continues their deafening, round-the-clock sonic assault on the building. This must be Bill Gothard's vision of Hell.

Yushchenko was (Possibly) Poisoned .

I've avoided this issue until now, because the Austrian doctors had refused to confirm poisoning. But I just saw the HUGE news over on Obozrevatel that The Times is reporting confirmation of an assassination attempt.

Remember this the next time Kuchma, Yanukovych or Putin are on the television sounding diplomatic. Remember this the next time some pinhead says there's no difference between Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Remember that they tried to kill this moderate, decent family man. Look at the ruin of his face and see what we're fighting against here.

Update- In a bizarre twist, the AP is now reporting that the Austrian doctor quoted in the piece has denied making the quoted statements.

PORA Press Conference

I hit the PORA press conference today at the UNIAN Information Agency (think Ukr-Reuters). Three leaders from central staff were there -- Andriy Yusov, Vladislav Kaskiv and Evgen Zoloterov. Some really good news came out of the meeting:

- Contrary to earlier reports, PORA will remain in existence after the elections.

- They're shifting their focus to southern and eastern Ukraine between now and the elections. They're putting together mobile groups to do education campaigns for voters and to focus on curbing election fraud. For this they've selected the 500 worst district commissions as their target group. Regional leaders are gathering on Dec 19th to finalize their plans.

- Red PORA (the Russian equivalent) continues to grow. There's now a chapter at Moscow Open Univ., and they've received correspondence from a potential organizer in Tambov.

Quick Update on Today's News

- Parliament has approved both the constitutional "reform" and the election law overhaul. Kuchma has also approved the resignation of the Prosecutor General. Still no real details on the final form of the constitutional changes, so I'll waiting to react. The fact that the Opposition overwhelmingly backed it is somewhat encouraging.

- The Opposition is seriously considering opening impeachment proceedings against Kuchma. This would be symbolic at this point, of course, but also a fitting end to his corrupt regime.

- The parliamentary votes today also aproved a transfer of power to the regions, which seems at first blush to be a very good thing. Federalism and decentralization are healthy in any country, and especially one as divided as Ukraine. Hopefully this will defuse some of the Separatist impulse.

- Moroz has announced that the blockades will be lifted tonight at 7. I'm waiting to hear from someone other than this dubious ally of the democracy movement before I believe it. It likely is true, but I want to hear it from a more reliable source.

Ukrainian cross-dresser threatens to sue

Another one for the "only in Ukraine file". . .

Serduchka, Ukraine's most famous cross-dresser, has accused Yanukovych's wife, Ludmilla, of ripping off his look. He's threatened to sue.

Happenings. . .

- Oleksandr Moroz disproves the adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" by denouncing Yushchenko over constitutional "reform" and threatning not to support him in the run-off. Only a portion of his 5% support will follow his lead, so this threat is less than horrifying.

- Kuchma has allowed Yanukovych to go on vacation. Under Ukrainian labor laws, no one can be fired while on vacation, presumably including the Prime Minister. Surely the timing was coincidental.

- Given machinations like the above, does anyone trust Kuchma to actually sign the electoral reform laws if they're sent to him? The idea has been to send both electoral reform and constitutional reform bills to him simultaneously. What's to stop him from signing one and vetoing the other? His conscience? His sportsmanship?

- There is talk of Yanukovych and Kuchma now working at cross-purposes -- Yanukovych wants to stay in the campaign as a way of maintaining his post-election relevance; Kuchma wants to drop him becaus he's become an albatross. This seeming divergence can also be seen in that Tihipko, Yanukovych's now-resigned campaign manager, was Kuchma's choice as a replacement for Yanukovych in new elections. Yanukovych now calls him a "traitor." Remember also that Kuchma and Yanukovych are representatives of two rival clans, so an alliance is always provisional.

UPDATE- I just noticed that Coordinator of the Majority Havrysh, Yanukovych's ostensible point man in the parliament, has said that Yanukovych should drop out of the race. He himself has dropped out of Yanukovych's reelection campaign.

Shiny, Happy, Orange People

Religion and the Democracy Movement

While the east-west dichotomy can be overstated here in Ukraine, religion is one area where the lines are drawn very starkly. Residents in western Ukraine are literally TWICE as likely to claim a religious faith than those in the east, according to the data I've seen. And while those in the east tend towards the Moscow Patriarchate, things become more Protestant, Greek Catholic and Kiev Patriarchate the farther west one goes.

Religious groups from across the Christian spectrum (excluding the Russian Orthodox -- Moscow Patriarchate, as usual) have judged this to be a clear social justice issue, and have been admirably proactive in things.

My old spot in Tent City has been turned into an Evangelical prayer center. Meanwhile the Kiev Orthodox have set up this very cool domed one:

UPDATE: Alert readers have pointed out the strong support the western Roman Catholics and the Jewish community have provided for the democracy movement as well. That's very true. And we can also include the Muslim Tatars, which have been very strongly in favor of the reformers.

Views from the Front

One of many blockades in the city -- this one covers the side entrance to the Cabinet of Ministers. Due to attrition, time of day, and a perceived reduction in threat level, numbers here are a third what they were before.

This blockade is new, I think -- the Ministry of Agriculture building.

A decorated camp stove in the suburbs of Tent City.

Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves too closely, but this is the first time I've seen lots of Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna Party flags. They outnumber the Tak! flags about two to one outside Parliament. A gentle reminder to her allies?

Here's a squad of Yushchenko's peacekeeping force. According to their team leader, Alex, the force has now reached about 130 men. There were several squads downtown today on patrol. Again, their mission isn't to guard against the militia, but rather to GUARD the militia from anyone who might cause a provocation. The new name for the outfit is the "Sons of a Free Ukraine."

A social services organization has set up a psych center in the internet club near Bessarabsky market. It's there to aid tent city residents.

The Liberal Media, where are you?

Are you still in Kiev? If you get a chance, call or email me, because the cel number isn't going through. I didn't get to Speeding Lisa last night, I'd hoped to bump into you there.

Anyway, I have the arrangements for your Czech folk singer buddies, so let me know the status. And call. We'd like to see you while you're in town. Tomorrow morning or afternoon would be good, the Duchess will be home.

Photoblogging, 5 December 2004

Independence Square the night of the Supreme Court victory.

A GREAT new punk band, followed on stage by Ukrainian folk singers.

The medical section and supply point at Yushchenko's railroad station HQ

Махінаціям. Ні! Может быть!

Hotline has a good overview of election laws relevant to the second round.

The latest poll data puts Yushchenko about 16 points ahead of Yanukovych. Granted, Ukraine's oligarchs got to be oligarchs through a knack for larceny, but stealing that many votes would be problematic even for them. So there's speculation that Yanukovych may drop out entirely, at less than ten days from the election. This would make Yushchenko the sole candidate and force him to garner a clean 50% of the vote. This would require a much less ambitious fraud effort on the part of Kuchma and Co.

While these details lack the sex appeal of storming parliament or blockading buildings, they're no less important. This whole process is one big minefield, and every day Kuchma's people seem to plant new ones.

Constitutional Reform, Part II

Yushchenko originally agreed to tie election reform to constitutional reform, but a spine donor enabled him to back out, thankfully. Our Ukraine refused to allow a vote on these measures this weekend, and the Rada has since adjourned for ten days.

Agreeing to "Reform" would be a betrayal of everything millions have sacrificed to elect a reformist president. Let it wait until 2006, when a fairly elected Parliament can receive power.

As you listen to the politicians, remember that they no longer have the sole word on things. The people of Ukraine have their own opinions these days, and Independence Square may not sit docilely during these machinations. I don't think Yushchenko just spontaneously backed out of his reform agreement.

Unfortunately, the parliamentary deadlock means that as of now we're stuck with Yanukovych as PM, the same Central Election Commission, and no election law reform. But this election round should be different -- Yanukovych is marked as the man who tried to steal the election and then split Ukraine, several media outlets have started reporting the truth, and the entire world is watching carefully.

Let's close with a quote from Yulitchka --

"'If the text (of constitutional reforms) is passed in its current form, all the powers of the president would be transferred to the parliament. . . We want the president to be able to name the head of the SBU (intelligence agency) and the prosecutor-general so we can fight with corruption and get rid of the clans,' who dominate Ukraine's political and business life, she told journalists."

Constitutional Reform, Part I

The biggest news this weekend wasn't what happened, but what didn't -- Constitutional "Reform". We've disussed this in the comments section, but I wanted to bring it to the main page, because it really is crucial right now.

In principle, it's a good idea -- strip power from the president and give it to parliament as a hedge against another autocratic administration. Another time and place, I'd agree with this reasoning.

Here though, it was pushed back when Yanukovych's approval ratings were in the tank as a way to rob Yushchenko of his seemingly inevitable victory. The current Rada was elected in the corrupt 2002 elections, in which Kuchma's people took a majority despite having half the popular support of Yushchenko. These are the people who would receive power if "Reform" is passed.

The key factor in all of this is Oleksandr Moroz, the leader of the Socialist Party. He's the enemy of the enemy, but anything but a reliable friend. During the first round, he chose not to unite with the rest of the Opposition, instead running a vanity campaign. During the second round he was great, but now his monomania for Constitutional Reform has threatened to fracture the Opposition (though Yulia has announced that it won't.) Moroz's party is a player in parliament, and never will be at the presidential level. He's sacrificing election reform and democratic progress on the altar of his own ego.

The problem we're facing is that Moroz and the Kuchma bloc have united to tie "Reform" to the needed changes in the election system. It's an ugly sort of blackmail -- no clean elections unless Yushchenko also agrees to cut his own throat.

Lazy Saturday

I needed a day of rest, so Saturday was devoted to volunteer English lessons, sleep, and getting reacquainted with the wife and kids. Sorry for the lack of posts. Check back Sunday for more news, analysis, snarkiness and photoblogging from Ukraine!

Sounds from Independence Square / Mortal Kombat Po-Ukrainskiy

Want to hear the song everyone on the Square is jamming to?

Download Razom nas Bahato at Orange Ukraine.

There's already a club mix, though it fails to meet my whelm threshold. You can find it here.

UPDATE: Strike a blow for freedom! Fight corruption!

Just found a simple but fun 2004 Election boxing game over at Hotline. Vitrenko, Kuchma, Yanukovych. . . The whole rogue's gallery is there for the tagging.

How and Why the Election was Stolen, part IV B

No time to do a full article on this tonight, and now -- no need. Anything evidence I might add is superfluous now that a member of the Presidential Administration has testified in the Supreme Court that:

"after the closing of the polling stations in the regions, in the time between 20:00 November 21 and 9:00 November 22, the number of voters in a single Ukrainian area increased by 1,200,000 voters.

In one only Donetske, the number of "voters" after 20:00 November 21 increased by 500,000."

Update: Orange Ukraine is talking about the yanukovych election tape scandal. Check out Ukrainian Pravda here and here for transcripts.

In Search of a Yanukovych Supporter. . .

Orange Ukraine and I continued our partnership today, traveling to the reputed site of the Yanukovych tent camp -- the train station. We arrived, and the guard told us they were set up inside the building. On the left-side first floor is a wide, open room. We found the doorway guarded, and covered in orange banners -- Yushchenko had established a base there.

Inside we found a medical center and a makeshift storage area for supplies. A couple of hundred people sleep there each night, and they see about 5,000 people at the med center each day for minor medications.

It turns out, the Yanukovych camp folded awhile back. A leader of this camp explained to us that they ended up feeding the Yanukovych people for two days, and several of them had "defected" to Yushchenko. I loved his answer when I asked about relations there between the partisans of the two candidates: "Here there are no Yushchenko and Yanukovych supporters, only Ukrainians."

More Establishment Fissures in Parliament

A total of eighteen Deputies have now walked away from the Kuchma/Yanukovych coalition. Some are outrightly supportive of Yushchenko, some are neutral.

The situation in the Rada is in such flux, that it's hard to tell where the power rests. The day after they voted against recognition of the 2nd round of voting, they were poised to reverse themselves (though that was stopped by the timely intervention of nasha Yulia.) These defectors from the Government camp are still the same people they were three days ago. It's safe to bet opportunism motivates them -- idealism would have led them out ages ago.

Official members of the Opposition are sometimes no better, depending on the issue. Socialist Party honcho Moroz's monomania for "Constitutional Reform" could render Yushchenko's victory hollow -- transferring power from the president to an unreliable Parliament.

Nevertheless, that's eighteen less automatic votes for Yanukovuych and Co, and that can't be bad.

Just found details from Obozrevatel.om: National Deputies are leaving pro-governmental factions. Five National Deputies left the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United) faction, three left the Regions of Ukraine faction, nine - including the leader of the faction, Ihor Sharov, left Labor Ukraine and one national deputy left the Union group.

Steps remaining for total victory

We had a HUGE win today, but the fight continues. We could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. At least four obstacles remain between us and a total victory, and it's far from obvious that we have the votes or the leverage to gain all of them:

1. Reforming election laws to prevent fraud.
2. Appointment of new members to the Central Election Commission.
3. Removal of Yanukovych as Prime Minister.
4. Fending of immediate "Constitutional Reform" in favor of 2006 or later.

Parliament will be debating most of these this weekend, so keep an eye on the news.

Jubilance in the Square

The initial euphoria of the Orange Revolution wore off for me about four days ago, and I settled into a sort of trench warfare mentality, borken only by incoming good news or the occasional bout of (justifiable) paranoia that I might be attracting attention from the wrong people. So it was great to be on the Square tonight as everybody was celebrating our Court victory. We arrived only for the last few songs, but there was just such a wonderful energy to the thing. The closer was Razom Nas Bahato -- the crowd went crazy.

Down the street is a smaller stage, and there was some GREAT alternative Slavic rock blasting there tonight. In a moment so quintessential to this Revolution, the band was followed immediately by a male chorus in full Ukrainian dress. A mixed crowd of everything from young people to pensioners cheered and danced to both sets.

We won big today. I'd forgotten how much fun a Revolution can be.

Big News -- Supreme Court Ruling

This is the Duchess. Hubby doesn't have access to a computer right now, so I'm posting for him.

Our friends Lena and Seryozha just came over. At 5:58 the Supreme Court decision was read. The Supreme Court has ruled that:

1. The election from November 21 is invalid.
2. There will be another run-off election, between Yushchenko and Yanukovich.
3. The election will be held before the end of December.

We were all jumping up and down and so excited. This decision is wonderful and right. And honestly, I am so happy and amazed at how things are turning out.

As soon as I find this from an English news source, I'll provide a link.

More Yulia, To Russia with Love, and Fun with Brainwashing

- Another reason to love Yulia:

"Tymoshenko promised to supply Russia with a similar revolution: 'As soon as our orange revolution has been completed, we’ll transfer it to Russia.' Tymoshenko said one could see cars with orange ribbons in Moscow even now."

- I wish those who keep talking about "American advisors" to the Yushchenko campaign were right. We could have used a lot more campaign savvy this election cycle, particularly in message framing and PR. Yanukovych, on the other hand, relied heavily on Western consultants, particularly in his image rehabilitation project which took him from disrespected thug to the-man-who-boomed-the-economy in weeks.

- Why did Kuchma go to Moscow? If another country is openly trying to fracture your own, do you travel there for consultation on political strategy? Just on a political level, why do something that's going to inflame your Opposition?

He's digging in his heels, and looking to the only friend he has left. This isn't a president on the verge of compromise. I think the visit will backfire in the same way as Yanukovych's separatism speech.

- I was reminded last night just how insidious the Yanukovych propaganda machine really is. My good friend Roma is from Russia but lives in Kiev. He only listens to the establishment channels for news, because he doesn't like the Opposition.

He's a die-hard Yanukovych man. Why? "Because Yushchenko is like Hitler -- he wants to kill all the Russians." He can't tell you why he thinks Yushchenko wants to do that, but he's been convinced.

If a young, well educated Kievite can be this blinded to reality, I can only imagine what Donetsk must be like.

- A member of the Central Election Commission has testified before the Supreme Court about election falsificatsiya.

Yulia Tymoshenko Press Conference, Part II

Some highlights:

1. When asked about rumors that she'd ordered Communist Party offices ransacked, she explained that they'd already destroyed themselves by being AWOL in the post-election period. There's "no one left to fight with."

2. The only acceptable election is one with Yushchenko as a candidate.

3. The "Government of People's Confidence" being established is a genuine, permanent government, not a temporary one.

4. There isn't going to be a long wait for electoral reform laws intended to prevent fraudulent voting. The people won't wait.

5. The people are equally impatient for new elections.

6. Kuchma is refusing to act responsibly -- he's blocking electoral reform, has refused to appoint a new Central Elections Committee and hasn't signed the removal of discredited Prime Minister Yanukovych.

Yulia Tymoshenko Press Conference, Part I

For a good, polished write-up of the event, go to Orange Ukraine. I'm going to focus more on my personal take on things:

1. Yulia is playing the role normally given to VPs in American presidential campaigns -- the Bad Cop -- thereby allowing Yushchenko to be presidential and above the fray. Yushchenko does a smiling photo op yesterday with Yanukovych, and today Yulia gives a tough speech. Smart. (Our friend Lena's take -- "It's typical Ukrainian family. Of course the woman is the strong one.")

2. She plays her role as Pythia of the People really well. Though it's more than acting. When she speaks for them, she has legitimacy. The enthusiasm on the Square when she appears is palpable. She embodies their implacability much more than Yushchenko.

3. The Yushchenko camp is wisely triangulating -- Kuchma/Yanukovuch on one wing, the People on the other. Yushchenko thus stands in the middle, standing against both separatism and radicalism.

4. Yulia was asked if the Yushchenko camp would accept a negative verdict from the Supreme Court. She answered that it wasn't a matter of politicians accepting it, but of the people. This was, of course, partly a hedge in case they lose. But it was also an acknowledgment of changed reality -- politicians no longer have untrammeled control over the people.

Instead, mediating institutions have sprung up -- something key in forming a free society. People now have both a shield against naked government power, and a way to influence the process. And they may not be easily mollified now. They know they were cheated, and they want justice.

Photoblogging, 2 Dec 2004

Here's Yulia Tymoshenko at the press conference with her traditional Ukrainian Princess-Leia-cinnabon hairdo. Yulia is some sort of Margaret Thatcher / Audrey Hepburn cloning experiment gone very, very right. Unfortunately, my camera doesn't zoom very well so she's a bit distant today.

The riddle of the mystery stage was solved today. If you remember, even the builders didn't know who was behind the thing. Turns out to have been the pro-Opposition city mayor, Omelchenko. He's organized some sort of Concert for Unity. That might normally sound like the end of a silly 80's movie, but here it's deadly serious -- an attempt to work against the separatist movement.

Omelchenko gave a speech today where he sounded like a true humanist. That's one of the big changes here -- that politicians have to at least acknowledge humanistic principles in a way they didn't have to before.

Friendly Disorder

I mentioned in the last post how peaceful things have been thus far. That's due to two reasons. Firstly, the demonstrators are much more jubilant than angry. The whole thing has a celebratory feel.

Secondly, the Opposition has taken some VERY wise steps to keep order:

1. The protesters are told regularly that anyone who's drunk is considered a provocateur.

2. Non-violence is stressed often.

3. Multiple ranks of guards are placed between the people and any detachment of troops. These guards take the job seriously, and often the leaders have military or police backgrounds.

4. The Opposition has leaders among the crowd maintaining order.

Today I was able to sit down with Yura, a member of the Mobile Unit, which Yushchenko's people have organized as a quick reaction force. It's composed entirely of former soldiers and militiamen. I grew nervous when I heard about that.

Then Yura explained the reason for the force. It's directed not against government troops, but against provocateurs. It's a way of policing both our own people, and anyone who would commit a wrong act to discredit us. The democracy movement is committed to non-violence.

Tut-tutting about Civil Disobedience?

The blockading of buildings and the like by the Opposition likely seems discrediting to some. And it's everyone's right to criticize. They just need to hold on to their intellectual integrity by delegitimizing the Civil Rights Movement, the anti-war movement, the nuclear freeze movement, the environmental movement, the Labor movement, Solidarity, and pretty much every progressive or pro-democracy movement in history (and don't forget Gandhi for good measure!)

The difference between the Ukrainian democracy movement and most of the rest of these is that even with a million people on the streets in Kiev, there hasn't been rioting, rock pelting, overturned cars, broken windows or Molotov cocktails. That's especially significant, considering they were invented here. . .

Notices

- The situation on the ground has evolved a lot since the early days. The activist positions I've filled are now able to be handled by other people. After talking to activists and to people close to me, I've decided that the wiser and more effective course is to focus on getting out the truth about events here in Kiev, rather than street-level activism. So for the record, I'm not affiliated with any protest organization.

- HUGE congrats to Orange Ukraine for landing a gig as Editor/Writer with Yushchenko's International Election Update Newsline.

- I covered the Tymoschenko press conference today, and then gave off-record interviews to a couple of British papers. Yulia was in top form. I'll give you a rundown later this evening!

- Hotline.net.ua and the PORA were both nailed with a DNS-style attack today, in case you noticed they were down. Postmodernclog.com was also down, but I don't think it's related.

- Real life intrudes a bit tonight, so I'll post more in a few hours. Check back!

Quick morning updates

The Reformers are nobody's fool. Just found out that Poroshenko is saying the protesters will stay put until Yanukovych is out of office. This makes sense, since there's no way to trust any vote run by his ministers.

On a practical level little compromise seems possible (in my opinion) so long as Yanukovych holds on to his office.

Clarification on Trolls / Ballot Fraud Photo

I've had a couple of questions, so I just wanted to clarify -- criticizing the democracy movement doesn't make you a troll. It makes you a lot of other things, but a troll isn't on the list.

Things that do:

1. Personal attacks, rudeness or hard profanity.
2. Arguing American politics during this period of time.
3. Whining about my reaction to the above.

Unrelated note- I've gone back and redone that ballot fraud photo as a thumbnail. Rather than emailing me, just click and copy it. Then send it to everyone you know!

The day gave, and the day took away. . .

Just read the Kyiv Post analysis of today's events, and it fills in some questions I had. Yushchenko comes off much tougher than he did at the press conference announcement, which only gave the bare points. But this has been a day that gave with one hand and took back with the other.

- Yushchenko has lifted the blockades. But he's vowed to keep to the streets until he gets a solid date on a new vote, and changes in the voting laws. He's given the working group 24 hours to come up with them.

- Yanukovych was voted out as PM, taking away his ability to steal votes administratively. He has refused to accept this, and Kuchma can veto the vote, if he wants to spend the political capital doing it.

- Yushchenko is standing firm in his demand for a repeat of the 2nd round, rather than the completely new elections Kuchma wants.

I saw a statement by Solana, the chief EU intermediary, that it could take up to a month to perform the necessary legal changes. Kuchma is saying it might take three months to have a new vote. Bartender, I'll have whatever they've been drinking. There's no way the Opposition is going to let their people sit in the snow for 3 months. The only way even the one month time-frame is conceivable is if it comes with some sort of iron-clad, double-strength insurances. And I'm having trouble thinking of what those could be.

You also have to remember that Yushchenko isn't the democracy movement, and the movement isn't Yushchenko. The protesters have been docile so far, but Yushchenko doesn't have carte blanche in negotiating. They could choose to take unilateral action. PLEASE NOTE for the record that I am in no way threatening or advocating any sort of specific direct action.

Unrelated note: Proof that cretinism knows no ideology -- an attack on the democracy movement from an elitist Tory-conservative perspective!

Photoblogging -- 1 Dec 2004

Celebrating the downfall of Yanukovych tonight -- before the announcement that he was ignoring the Parliamentary vote of no-confidence.

A snowy shot from Independence Square yesterday.

The tent city now extends past the Central Department Store, and the bus queue now reaches the end of the street. I'm amazed it's still growing at this point. . .

The memorial to Holodomor, the Soviet-engineered Great Famine that killed 7-10 million (primarily eastern and central) Ukrainians. This is a living memory for some, and puts the current Russian intervention into perspective.

"Putin Vovan, Praffesoru Pakhan."

Slangy as can be, but I'll give you a translation -- "Putin the "big Vova" (mafia nicknames end in "an"), is the jailhouse boss of the Praffesor."

Professor is mispelled deliberately -- it's how Yanukovych listed his job title on his resume. The criminal stuff is an allusion to the two times Yanukovych has been imprisoned for violent crimes

This photo of Yushchenko and his family, pre-poisoning, is ubiquitous in Kiev now. All political considerations aside, I just really LIKE Yushchenko.

The new structure near the cathedral turned out to be a stage. But for which campaign, nobody is saying. The workers themselves don't yet know.

Breaking News - Agreement Signed

From the press conference at Marinskiy Palace. From what I'm hearing, President Kuchma announced:

1. All parties have signed an agreement. It was a "genuine compromise." There is going to be a revote, though I don't think the type has been decided yet.

2. There is going to be an expert working group to look at the legal issues of the election. They will follow the recommendations of the Supreme Court.

3. All sides are renouncing violence.

4. The protesters are going to stop blocking government buildings.

5. There will be constitutional reform during the upcoming period.

From the quick bit I saw on the TV here, everyone was smiling, including the "sick" Yanukovych. With only the above info, it's hard to say what the significance of this is. I need to know what kind of constitional reform. To date, that phrase means a weakening of the president in favor of the PM. We'll have to see what it means here.

A lot of the activists here at this spot aren't happy about the agreement. There's always an undercurrent of mistrust that he's too timid, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt. But it does seem like an ambiguous step at best.

Unrelated note: Channel 5 is announcing a massive removal of official documents from the Ministry of Internal Affairs office. They had footage of voting slips in the back of dumptrucks.

We're winning!

It's hard to find bad news these days. Everything seems to be breaking our way.

- The Parliament has voted out Yanukovych. Theoretically, Kuchma could keep him in power for up to two more months before appointing a new one. But he's damaged goods, so it's hardly likely.

- Talk is that Parliamentary Speaker Lytvyn is supported by some in Yushchenko's bloc, and that Kuchma is likely to appoint him. He's moved from a supporter of Kuchma to a centrist recently, and has conducted himself with a lot of class throughout this whole crisis. Other people getting named are Tymoschenko and Socialist leader Alexandr Moroz. Both of them would be great in the role.

- Yanukovych's HQ is surrounded by orange people. He himself is secluded, and Kuchma says he's "sick" and can't appear publicly. Right.

- Maidan is reporting that the extremist group Bratsvo is planning a provocation to damage Yushchenko, as they were hired by the ruling powers to do during the campaign as well. They're traveling to Odessa and plan to seize public buildings while wearing Yushchenko colors. Our people have denounced this and called on the authorities to deal with them. This is a sign of desparation.

- Just walked past Mikhailovskiy Cathedral, and saw a new 30X20 meter fenced structure going up. The people building it have no idea who ordered it. It'll be interesting to find out who's behind this.

-NOTE WELL -- we haven't won. There is still a LOT the regime can do. But the momentum is on our side. Now that we're winning the battle, it's important that we don't lose the peace.

New Poll data from the Razumkov Center

In the event of a new second round of voting, this is the way it would break down, according to the data:

Yushchenko – 53%
Yanukovich – 38%
Against both candidates – 4%
I don’t know – 5%

"The poll was held from November 25th to November 29th 2004 in 118 cities, towns and villages in all regions of Ukraine. Two thousand and thirteen people over 18 have participated. Error rate is no more than 2.3%."

A note to Trolls.

This blog has lately been infested with trolls wanting to do little other than make personal attacks and argue about American politics. This isn't going to continue. Le Sabot is focused entirely on Ukraine right now. I couldn't care less about the politics of Left and Right at this time. I appreciate that BOTH sides are providing so much support and prayer for freedom in Ukraine.

Come back when Ukraine is democratic and we can argue Bush vs. Kerry or whatever you want.

Until then, I'm done with you, whatever your political persuasion. If you want to discuss the situation in Ukraine, stick around. If you want to play the troll, I'll just delete you without a second thought. If you don't like it, tough. This is my blog, go get your own. :-)

What about the other 43 38%?

This is a legitimate question. After all, Yanukovych supporters are people too, and he does have a genuine base of support in the country. Some general thoughts:

1. The loser of an election always has supporters. That doesn’t justify an electoral coup d’etat.

2. There isn’t moral equivalency here – an authoritarian thug with popular support remains an authoritarian thug.

3. The average Yanukovych supporter had no opportunity for a free choice. They were systematically denied access to information outside of the pro-Yanukovych line. This doesn’t invalidate their vote, but it contextualizes it.

This subject comes up a lot on the street. There is some genuine anti-Donetsk feeling, but the sentiment that gets most often expressed is sympathy. It reminds me of the Cold War – Americans hated the Soviet system, not the people. The tendency is to see those in Donetsk as co-victims of the regime (and this often extends to the Russian people and Putin as well.)

To better understand, look at Yanukovych’s base in Lugansk and Donetsk. A better environment for someone like him is unimaginable. Ruling over the area is the toughest oligarchy in Ukraine. The media there is utterly dominated it. There you have massive factories and mine systems, filled with low-wage employees. Yanukovych’s people have largely subverted the unions, and the people have no real security or recourse. One union does try to stand up, and is repeatedly battered by the oligarchs. This area has 10% of the population yet produces 20% of the GDP. But little of it reaches the workers.

Like with many authoritarian systems, this one uses an external scapegoat to deflect the anger of the people. So they’ve demonized Yushchenko there with lies and scary half truths.

This is an electoral fraud dreamland -- a highly centralized local government owned wholesale by the oligarchs. A media with free play to fearmonger and propagandize. And a mass of low-skilled workers grouped in easily monitored worksites who hold their jobs only on the sufferance of the ruling powers. Donetsk and Lugansk aren’t regions so much as a fiefdom.

Putin Offered a Crackdown?

A surprising article in the Independent today: Moscow's dangerous game of Ukrainian roulette. . .

"According to government sources, Russia had offered to crush demonstrators by force and to back it against any international backlash. However, surprised at the scale of support for Mr Yushchenko, Moscow seems to have launched a hastily-prepared "Plan B", which has raised the spectre of separatism."

It puts the rumors of Russian troops in Ukraine after the election in perspective. I remember waiting that first night in the tent city for the hammer to drop on us. Word had it that troops were coming in at 2 am. It'll be interesting when everything comes out and we know how close we came to getting hit.

Eventful days. . .

I can't begin to list everything, but here's a partial roundup:

- Yushchenko has broken off negotiations with Kuchma and Yanukovych. Their position was, "Make a deal based on an unenforcable promise that we'll make you a strong Prime Minister under President Yanukovych, and then disperse the protesters." Thankfully, Yushchenko was born in the morning, but not THIS morning.

- Kuchma/Yanukovych's other bargaining position is to call for entirely new elections. They've made noises that both Yanukovych and Yushchenko wouldn't be allowed to run, but instead new candidates would be fielded. This would conveniently let them dump their currently radioactive Donestk thug, while robbing the Opposition of their wildly popular candidate. You can start to see why Yushchenko stopped negotiating.

- Donetsk seems to have backed away from any immediate plans for separation, having cancelled the Dec. 5th referendum. Kharkiv has also backed off. This can't be good for Yanukovych -- he's now the poster boy for a movement that isn't reaching its goal anytime soon, but has also ticked off the rest of the country. The SBU intelligence service is opening a criminal investigation into the situation. This is what they call a worst case scenario.

UPDATE: More evidence of a fracturing regime -- 4 Deputies from Medvedchuk's party have gone neutral, and 1 from Yanukovych's own party.

- Separatism also revealed some fissures in the oligarch camp. Pinchuk, Kuchma's own son-in-law and the second richest man in Ukraine, has come out publicly against it. So has a major Donetsk industrial group and a large Zaporizha steel plant.

- Talked to a friend from the business community today. His business is at 20% of the pre-election total. He's very worried about economic recession, and mentioned that there have been some preliminary runs on banks. The national strike is having an impact, in his opinion. In another sign of division, Kuchma says financial collapse is imminent, while a Vice PM says that's ridiculous and that Ukraine has 10 billion in reserves.

- The Supreme Court is expected to rule tomorrow on Yushchenko vs. the Bandits.

- 30,000 Yushchenko supporters rallied in the eastern city of Kharkiv today. They were balanced by an equally large pro-Yanukovych rally in the western city of Ternopil. Oh wait, no they weren't. Because dead people and false ballots can't actually rally for anyone.

Curiouser and Curiouser. . .

My favorite postmodern Ukrainian author, Andrei Kurkov, was on Channel 5 this morning to endorse Victor Yushchenko for president. He's the author of a surreal little novel, Death and the Penguin. Which isn't half so surreal as the past couple days have been.

I had dinner with my compatriot Dan from Orange Ukraine and his lovely wife tonight downtown. We all agree that the strategic picture here is almost impossible to grasp in its entirety. There are so many unknowable variables, and so many individual agendas coalescing and falling apart simultaneously. It's somewhere in a gray area between complex and chaotic.

The Yanukovych family seems to have fallen down the rabbit hole as well. Tulipgirl has posted about Yanukovych's wife, Ludmilla, and her bizarre rant in Donetsk. Everyone is joking about poison oranges these days.

Now it seems that Yanykovych hospitalized his own Minister for Transportation with a kick to the groin yesterday. People were buzzing about it today all over Kiev. If true, it will join a list of bizarre but true things about Yanukoych -- among them that he listed himself as a "proffessor" on his resume, thereby making two spelling mistakes in one Russian word, and the bizarre egg incident now made famous by the singing bird duo "Vesyoli Yaitso."

Half the Country? Not hardly.

In an otherwise good NYT article, they report this:

"Also, regional leaders in the Russian-speaking eastern half of the country on Sunday threatened to hold referendums on autonomy."

Reading this, the average reader is going to think, "Oh, half the country wants to split off."

Wrongo. There are 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and two independent administrative districts. Only three of them are seriously considering separation. And only two have a realistic chance of pulling it off.

The industrialized, Eastern ethnic Russians / village, Western ethnic Ukrainian dichotomy is way overstated. For example, Kiev is the nerve center of the Opposition. It is 70% Russian-speaking. Most of the central and eastern Ukrainian cities which aren't remotely considering secession are even more heavily Russified.

News: Cracks in the oligarch camp / Oligarchs "negotiate" in bad faith.

Discussion is continuing in the Parliament regarding Yushchenko's demands for coalition government and the like. Meanwhile, some other developments from Maidan and Hotline:

More cracks in the oligarch camp:

- Businesses and a major union have come out against Yanukovych's movement for separation.

- Speaker of the Parliament Lytvyn, a former supporter of Yanukovych, is speaking out against the oligarch TV's agitation for separatism.

- The Sumy city Social-Democrats (oligarch Medvedchuk's party) have declared for Yushchenko.

- Tyhipko, the head of Yanukovych's campaign and the Central Bank, has quit both positions. He has also criticized Yanukovych.

Yanukovych and Kuchma are playing for time and employing a rhetorical charm offensive:

- Kuchma has said he is in favor of a revote.

- Yanukovych said he would make Yushchenko PM if Yanukovych becomes president. Meanwhile he's down in Donetsk working to split 3 regions off from Ukraine.

This is the greatest buddy team since Abbot and Costello Stalin and Beria. The president makes nice sounds about revoting while his surrogates quietly set up an independent republic for him and his own to rule. The same day the president announces his support for new elections, his Prime Minister pulls out of negotiations to go campaign for secession in Donetsk.

They get nice sound bites about working with the Opposition and revoting, while doing everything they can to drag out the 'negotiating' process and undermine the territorial integrity of the country.

UPDATE: Christopher Price very rightly points out that these delays also give more time for cold and disease to weaken the Opposition.

Tangerine Dream

Riding the metro today surrounded by orange-clad compatriots, the warmth of the car made my eyes heavy. An old man came on with a boyan and started playing a folk song. My head against the wall, the music and the rocking of the car took me right to the twilight edge of sleep.

I haven't really slept in days. My clothes need a washing. But resting there, I realized just how supremely happy I am. Never did I imagine that a dream like this last week could come true.

How and Why the Elections were Stolen, part IV A

A friend who's a Reuter's journalist in Eastern Europe forwarded this photo to me. It shows a vote tally sheet from the Ukrainian elections. For those of you who don't read Cyrillic, Yanukovych received 2,139 votes, no one else received any. I think Kim Jong Il's opponent gets more votes than that.

Click on the picture for a full-size image. Feel free to share it with everyone you know!

Ukrainians are people, not geopolitical pawns. And they want to be free.

One of the tragic things I see developing is that the Western media narrative seems to be falling into a US vs. Russia play. And I'm seeing more and more commentary in that vein on the web. So few seem to grasp that this is about an entire system, not about an election. Yes, the people are rallying for Yushchenko, but it goes so, so much deeper than that.

The events in Ukraine are about a people fighting free of the grayness, corruption, abuse and fatalism of the post-Soviet era. All of you, Right or Left, need to see them as people. Yes, there are geopolitical ramifications. But they should be so incredibly secondary to the humanity of the Ukrainian people -- these are flesh and blood human beings who are fighting to be free of a vicious, grinding system.

People are proud to be Ukrainian, proud that their country is now known for something other than mafia, dead journalists, and corruption. People who a week ago were convinced of their own powerlessness are now standing fearlessly, singing together, "We are many, we are one, we can't be stopped!"

Can anyone be so dead of heart not to find this beautiful?

Left-wing/ Right-wing -- for once in my life I don't care.

I'm a conservative. Anyone poking through the archives will quickly see that. This puts me in a tight position, because most of the apologists for the oligarch regime are coming from the Left.

So I want to make the following statement -- "I don't care about American or European internal politics right now. Not a jot. My entire heart and focus are reserved for the Ukrainian people. This is my home, and I am with them."

The Left-Right concensus on democracy in Ukraine is incredibly precious to me. It's precisely for this reason that I'm fisking the small segment of the Left which is working to fracture that alliance. We NEED both sides with us. I could not be less interested in scoring cheap political points about American politics. If you doubt me, consider this -- a Yushchenko win will likely cost America a member of the "Coalition of the Willing." Do I seem concerned?

Christian support for the Democracy Movement

I just watched Yulia Tymoshenko in Independence Square announcing the support of various religious groups in Ukraine. I wasn't able to copy down all of them, I'll try for a more complete list later. But some of the big names on the list include:

- The Eastern-Rite Catholic Church of Ukraine
- The Kiev Patriarchate of the Orthodox Church
- The All-Ukrainian Union of Evangelical-Christian Baptists
- The Autocephalous Ukrainian Orthodox Church

This last is an Evangelical umbrella denom that's organizationally a legacy of Communism (though that's not in ANY way a reflection on the churches themselves. They didn't ask to be amalgamated.) It's basically baptistic. Its strongest center is in Donetsk, so I'm glad to hear of their support.

The Russian Orthodox Church in Moscow continues its time-honored tradition of concubinism to autocracy. Not only did they lead a pre-election parade for Yanukovych, but they continue to support him in the face of all these corrupt dealings. There's a flyer going on around with the icon of Mary and a prayer for Yanukovych's victory. Old habits die hard, as they say.

As for other groups, the smaller Protestant churches seem to be almost monolithically for Yushchenko, from what I've seen.

I'll post some pics tonight from a couple of religious gatherings. I missed a great photo last night by about a second -- three Orthodox priests blessing the blockaders on Bankova Street. Maybe next time.

Check out RISU.ORG.UA for more info on religion and the election situation.

The prayer tent pitched beside the Conservatory on Independence Square:

An Evangelical free concert next to the Kreshatik metrostation. The verse on the banner is the often-quoted one about God healing the people's land if they'll seek His face:

A quick response to Peter Unwin

Once again, a Brit is going wobbly on democracy. I don't have time to fisk this particular piece in toto right now, becaue I'm grabbing the kids and taking them downtown to see history today. I'll just say two things:

1. "Do we really want to see the EU take in 50 million Ukrainians as well as 70 million Turks?"

This is both the heart of the story, and a clear view of his heartlessness. He'll cheerily throw 50 million people to the wolves if it means Ukrainians won't be showing up in London looking for work, or becoming a drain on the EU economy.

2. This perfectly Orwellian statement:

"Where there is a real demand for it, we should do what we can to help; but democracy that grows out of the barrels of Western guns will not endure."

Western guns? The only guns getting pointed are the ones the oligarchs have trained on us.

There's so much spin in this piece, it could cause motion sickness.

Belated hat tip: Clive Davis

Party like it's 1982!

A Polish delegation in Kiev -- a nation second only to Ukrainians in my affections. Gotta love the Solidarity banners.

Ющенко -- Так! Янукович -- Мудак!

Sometimes it just needs to be said.

Photoblogging

At the Cabinet of Ministers Blockade

This is the likely flashpoint in any military/police crackdown. Below is a shot taken of one exit, but there are many such groups shutting down all approaching streets to the building. The buildings are empty, except for the militia guards who are allowed to enter and exit freely.

The sign sealing the main gate -- "Putin, don't become a terrorist!"

A long line of metal-tub drummers on the hillside overlooking the Cabinet. The din is unbelievable.

I asked this guy about his Astrakhan hat. His response? "Chicks dig it." Okay, I made that up.

The Kiev City Council Building

This has been kindly (and temporarily) donated to us by the pro-Opposition mayor, Omelchenko. We occupy most of the building presently. Men gather in the corner of the main hall by the piano and sing, the foyer is a sandwich-making assembly line. . .

. . .and there's even a medical clinic!

A view of the main hall, which is architecturally pure Soviet.

My first Yanukovych supporter under 45 years of age! Natasha and Andrei are the sweetest couple. I asked her if anyone had bothered her because of her flag. She was very clear -- no one had said anything rude to her at all. Amazing considering she was outnumbered about 100,000 to 1.

Yulia calls for Kuchma to act or face criminal charges

Yulia Tymoschenko, second figure in the Opposition and Ukraine's answer to Margaret Thatcher, delivered an ultimatum from Yushchenko and the National Salvation Committee tonight. It makes four demands upon President Kuchma, and the Opposition plans to blockade his summer residence if he doesn't act in 24 hours. It also threatens to hold him liable for criminal charges under the code of Ukraine.

The 4 Points:

1. Fire Yanukovych from Prime Minister, because of his election falsifications and his support of separatist groups.

2. New candidates for the Central Election Commission.

3. Fire the administrators of the Lugansk, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions because of their separatist actions.

4. To give urgent instruction to General Persecutor and Ukraine Security Council to open criminal case against separatists-dissenters of Ukraine.

Chances are pretty slim that any of these will happen. But it's further sign of the escalation taking place on both sides. Tymoschenko's statement that "there are sufficient faithful people among the military forces" to open a criminal case is especially noteworthy, IMO.

Update on Spec Force Militia in Kiev

I've spent a couple of hours near the Cabinet of Ministers blockade, the likely target of any crackdown tonight. So far, no special forces. I'm heading over to where they were gathering, at Shovkovychna Street. I'll let you know what I find. It's nearly 2 am here, but the streets and open buildings are full of people. The Cabinet Building still has ranks of people with interlocked arms 4 rows deep. Pics when I get a chance later.

UPDATE- The buses were gone when I arrived, but I spoke to the commandant at the Bankova tent city. He confirms that the buses were nearby, with Crimean tags. President Kuchma has given the protesters blockading the Cabinet building a 24-hour deadline to clear out.

It's hard to tell what's going on with the government at this point, things are so in flux. These reports aren't just crying wolf. I don't pretend to understand the government's motives in this type of situation, except that perhaps its a way to wear down the protesters with the constant threat of a crackdown. Regardless, it isn't working.

UPDATE- I received the info from Kuchma from the camp commandant and several other sources. It turns out there was a mistake, and that it is the General Prosecuters Office which issued the directive to the militia forces, not President Kuchma. Again, it's hard to nail things down here.

A Considerable Number of Policemen are Heading Towards Downtown Kyiv

Maidan reporting:

Ten buses with special forces units are located so far in the Shovkovychna Street. Many military vehicles full of policemen bearing Donetsk and Crimea license plates tried to go down the Hrushevskyj Street. The people picketing the Cabinet of Ministers have stopped the vehicles and now are blocking them. The policemen inside show vulgar signs to the people.

Anti-Semitism, Anti-Westernism and the Euro-Left.

I've received several emails and a couple of comments, so I'm going to comment on the Russian/Yanukovych PR counter-offensive. Jonathan Steele is being joined by a lot of others on the European hard Left who seem never to have overcome their reflexive anti-Westernism.

I'll address two of the main attempts to discredit the pro-democracy movement:

1. Anti-Semitists support Yushchenko over Yanukovych, so he must be a bad guy.

2. The British Helsinki Human Rights Group says Yushchenko is a tool of the West, the elections weren't stolen, and this isn't really a popular movement.

Update- Be sure to check out the comments on this post. Some very significant information on Jewish support for Yushchenko.

1. Anti-Semitists support Yushchenko over Yanukovych, so he must be a bad guy.

There IS anti-Semitism in Ukraine, among both ethnic Ukrainians AND ethnic Russians. And it is stronger in Western Ukraine -- the center of national feeling in the country.

However, I have seen ZERO evidence of anti-Semitism during the protests. This is significant, because I have been exposed to countless self-created flyers, pamphlets, posters and journals done by the various supporters of Yushchenko.

When you see Putin pawns trying to smear the democracy movement, ask yourself -- do they give ANY concrete examples of racist protesters? Do they cite even one desecration, attack or verbal exchange? Not that I've seen.

This same tactic could be used to discredit any political party in the world, because every nationwide social movement has its crazy aunts.

It's ironic, but I know of only two violent attacks by racists perpetrated during elections here -- the municipal elections in Mukachevo, and the beating of Yushchenko activists by skinheads in Poltava yesterday. Both were done by Yanukovych supporters.

UPDATE- I forgot to include the fact that Yanukovych's campaign hired a neo-fascist group to campaign on behalf of Yushchenko. Yushchenko promptly denounced both them and the agitprop itself. But don't expect those attacking him to mention that fact when using this alleged endorsement against him.

2. The British Helsinki Human Rights Group says Yushchenko is a tool of the West, the elections weren't stolen, and this isn't really a popular movement.

First, use your eyes and look at the photos coming from Ukraine. Then, examine the actual nature of the BHHRG. They're an extremely biased group with no ties to the International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights.

Contrary to the incredibly tendentious British report, check out the report from the real Helsinki group.

Big hat tip to Registan.net.

Interesting Times. . .

- Met a remarkable young man today -- only 26 and the youngest member of the Estonian parliament. He's here in support of democracy in Ukraine. As with all the Baltic Republics, Estonia felt the lash of the Russian whip, and doesn't want to see a neighbor fall back under its power.

- It looks like I've picked up a new hat as well. I'll be liasing part-time with foreign press services on behalf of the organization.

- Yushchenko has announced that security forces may possibly mmove on protesters. As he states, there are multiple proposals out there. He says that one option was to move on protesters at 20:00 tonight, which is in 15 mins. I don't think it will happen, but this week has been full of surprised.

- I'm hearing a lot more frustration with Yushchenko tonight from the activists. There has always been a large segment of the Opposition base which sees him as timid, and the talk of re-voting has them nervous. There are just as many who say that it was the only available choice. I'm not the person to judge it either way.

Martial Law?

Everybody is buzzing right now about martial law. Channel 5 just reported that the government is discussing taking such a step. Obviously this would be a huge escalation. Hold this news loosely, because at this point it's only a report of discussions and nothing more solid than that. But it's more than a little scary. Pray.

A few quick updates. . .

- Even the "independent" Russian stations are propagandizing. Last night on a program about plastic surgery they even managed to attack Yushchenko. Most of you have probably seen the pictures of his horribly ravaged face, the result of poisoning many believe.

In the middle of a standard program on plastic surgery, the Russian people yesterday were told that it came from a reaction to botox injections, resulting from chronic alcoholism.

THIS is the trash stuffed into people's heads every day.

- I went to a prayer meeting in an outlying bedroom community last night. We went down on our knees in prayer, and several people gave thanks that "Ukraine has risen from her knees." It was a beautiful moment.

- The Donetsk and Lugansk talk of secession has rattled some people here. This is the first oligarch tactic I've seen that's been at all effective since the elections. We'll have to see where this goes.

- It will also be interesting to see how Akhmetov, the oligarch king of Donestk, reacts to this movement for independence. He would undoubtedly love a small republic that he could defacto own.
Many others would prefer to unite with Russia. Some would stay with Ukraine, while others will want an autonomy resembling Crimeas. The internal debates should be fascinating, if this movement grows.

New on-site Ukrainian blog!

My good buddy Dan has opened a dynamite new blog -- Orange Ukraine - Helping to pull 48 million chestnuts out of the fire.

He's a former Peace Corps volunteer from Berkeley, California working as an economic journalist here in Kiev. When it comes to Ukraine, he's seen it, done it, surfed it, tubed it and has the t-shirt.

First off, he finishes off the quivering remains of the execrable Jonathan Steele in a pair of lovely fiskings. He gives us a run-down of which Ukrainian pop stars are backing which candidate -- Yushchenko in a landslide. He provides links to the OSCE findings on the election and some great photo archives.

Best of all, he gives more examples of just how this election was stolen. Here's one:

"Every single pro-opposition media outlet in the country (and neutral outlets, like Radio Liberty) was either shut down, or subject to allegations of terrorism, or accused of tax fraud, or accused of holding an improper license, and so on."

So check out Orange Ukraine and Tulipgirl -- together we're the Axis of Activists here in occupied Kiev!

More snapshots of history

Row after row of Yushchenko buses near Sofia Cathedral.

Protesters watch one of the ubiquitous orange TV trucks near the Cabinet of Ministers blockade.

Sign in the bathroom at Headquarters: Passenger! Don't pee in the lift, you aren't from Donetsk!

Since 99.9% of dead people voted for Yanukovych, it's nice to know that Grushevskiy supports us!

Activist reaction to Yushchenko's call for new elections

Almost everyone I spoke to today had a similar opinion -- it would have been better if we had won outright, but that Yushchenko did the best he could with the hand he was dealt. Two ideas that were repeated a lot were that "a better path doesn't exist" and that "we can't split the country." Apparently the saber rattling about autonomy in Donetsk made an impression. What I found today is that people are backing Yushchenko in this, and don't think that he sold out. A popular observation was that Yushchenko was smiling, while Kuchma and Yanukovych looked haggard.

Childlike Faith and the Conspiracy Theorists, Part II

Anyone who spent any time around the Yushchenko campaign, PORA or the like would find the idea of a Western-organized conspiracy laughable. Even by national standards, things are chaotic. NO ONE expected a social outburst of this magnitude, and organizationally no one was prepared for it.

Everything people are doing has an ad hoc flavor to it. And that's the beauty of it -- it's a postmodern dream of decentralized, spontaneous personal expressions of free speech and free minds.

Here's a humble example, one of a million here in Kiev: