Le Sabot Post-Moderne: What are the odds of Yulia being confirmed?

janvier 25, 2005

What are the odds of Yulia being confirmed?

Now that President Yushchenko has appointed Yulia as acting PM, the Parliament still needs to approve her.

The prospects look very good. Only a simple majority of 226 votes is needed. Nasha Ukraina has 100, Yulia's Party 19, Center has 14. Soyuz came out for her today -- 16 more. Moroz and the Socialists are almost sure to back her -- add in another 20. The Agrarians -- 32. Democratic Initiatives adds 13 more.

Today Lytvyn, the Parliamentary Speaker, announced that he's backing Tymoshenko. This brings in the Democratic Ukraine faction with 14 votes. Lytvyn's opinion is also respected among the 41 independent MPs. These can be expected, at least in part, to back Yulia. No independent is eager to make enemies at this point.

There may be a few defections from the above parties, but I think that will be more than offset by aisle-crossers from the oligarch parties. The Orange coalition has shown great unity since the election, while the oligarch parties are fissuring all over the place. Look especially for Social-Dem crossovers.

At least according to my quick thumbnail math, Yulia's chances look very good.

Photo: AFP

Posted by Discoshaman at janvier 25, 2005 08:35 AM | TrackBack

This is perhaps superficial on my part, but there is something reassuring about a beautiful woman with hair like that being in a position of power and influence. It is good to know that despite everything, all the women of influence in the world do not opt for the male-wannabe look.

Of course I don't mean that that in itself means that Yulia ought to be in a high position. I mean that it is nice to know that there are still some powerful and capable women in the world who apparently and blatantly delight in their womanhood.

Posted by: pentamom at janvier 25, 2005 06:30 PM

There was an interesting audio article on Yulia on NPR's Morning Addition today. I'd be interested to hear your take on it. (It alluded to the fact that she's been accused of illegally gaining her wealth, but said too that's she's been arrested and released without conviction.)

So her hair, does she wear it in the braids all the time? Is this a popular Ukranian style?
Fittsy
Birmingham, AL

Posted by: Fittsy at janvier 25, 2005 06:49 PM

Oh, and I haven't heard any more about Yushchenko poisoning scandal. Is there an investigation? Will his appearance return to normal over time? Is it still discussed in the media?

Posted by: Fittsy at janvier 25, 2005 06:53 PM

I have to admit, even in mid-December, I did not think it was possible Tymoshenko could be PM. Now it looks inevitable. It's sort of a classic bandwagon, I guess, where (as Disco alludes to) the independents need to be on the winning side. If Yushchenko wants her as PM, they don't want to be accused of blocking the people's will.

Posted by: Matt S at janvier 25, 2005 10:31 PM

On the dioxin matter, initially there were a few hundred possibilities. Then it was narrowed down to, I believe, 29 possible types. It was then believed that the specific dioxin would eventually be identified at which point the source of it could likely be determined. May our 'bloodhound' have a good nose.

Posted by: Taras at janvier 25, 2005 10:38 PM

What are the odds of T. being confirmed? I had thought that they would be - the snow in the desert kinda odds. Now I think she will be confirmed. I have reconciled myself to this. She is a prized asset for President Yushchenko. When she was made, they really did break the mold.

Posted by: Hello at janvier 25, 2005 11:31 PM