janvier 21, 2005

Ukraine Update -- Jan 21st

- We're having an inaguration! It's hard to believe, but I'll be talking about President Yushchenko after this Sunday. I'll be sure to post pictures from the Square that evening.

- Kuchma, Lukashenko and Putin all congratulated Yushchenko on his victory today. Deep-kissing a garbage disposal would likely have been less painful for them. . .

- Yanukovych seems to have abandoned all hope of a Blue Revolution. In place of Yanukovych, Vitrenko and the Progressive Socialists have been rousing most of the rabble lately. Now Yanukovych has recognized the decision of the Supreme Court and even called for the mini-tent cities to be taken down.

- Contrary to the expectations of some analysts, Yanukovych is positioning himself to be the primary leader of the Opposition. He's talking of winning the 2006 elections and forming a government. I'd held out hope he'd grow a Unabomber beard and start teaching classes at Columbia instead.

- Yanukovych summarized the Orange Revolution by saying that the "right of force defeated the force of right." I could summarize his speech by saying that the "shameful nonsense defeated the sense of shame."

- Leonid Kravchuk, former president and the head of the Social-Dems (an oligarch party also led by Medvedchuk) has promised to support Yushchenko. While opportunistic as can be, it's another sign that old allies are fracturing.

- The Communists are forming a "Leftist Front" with the Progressive Socs and others. They've sworn not to join the Orange Coalition. No doubt their absence will be sorely felt. Right.

- The current composition of the Parliament (reflecting MAJOR shifts in recent weeks):

1. Our Ukraine -- 100
2. Regions Party -- 56
3. Communist Party -- 53
4. Social Dems -- 28
5. Workers&People's Dems--15
6. People's Agrarian Party -- 32
7. Socialists -- 20
8. Tymoshenko Bloc -- 19
9. Union Party -- 16
10. Center Party -- 14
11. United Ukraine -- 22
12. Democratic Initiatives -- 13
13. Democratic Ukraine -- 14
14. Independent MPs -- 41
Posted by Discoshaman at janvier 21, 2005 01:13 AM | TrackBack




Comments

Disco,

Thanks for the parliamentary breakdown. It's hard to find that sort of info over in the States.

It would be extememely nice if those blocs were labeled as part of Yushchenko's coalitio or part of an opposition coalition... if possible....

:)

Posted by: Joe St at janvier 21, 2005 05:11 AM

Hi John, I agree with Joe St, with the addition that I've heard Lytvyn has been picking up a lot of the opportunist deputies that don't want to go all the way and try to join NU. Which party is he? Center? Because that doesn't ahve many folks in it. Where is Lytvyn?

Posted by: Dan McMinn at janvier 21, 2005 10:53 AM

John, I'll 'third" the motion! Though I've tried to find it, there is just not much to tell us who is who here... and lots of joining and bloc-ing going on, dying out, forming, renaming - it's all VERY confusing. It would be so nice to have just two sides - the good guys and the mostly nice guys...

My check list tally doesn't look so good..

1. Our Ukraine -- 100 name 'stolen' by Viktor Pynzenyk - old Reforms and Order
2. Regions Party -- 56 - Volodymyr Lytvyn (Op)
3. Communist Party -- 53 - Petro Symonenko (Op)
4. Social Dems -- 28 - Viktor Medvedchuk's party (Op)
5. Workers&People's Dems--15
6. People's Agrarian Party -- 32 - Volodymyr Lytvyn (Op)
7. Socialists -- 20 - Alexander Moroz (Y) - linked with Symonenko?
8. Tymoshenko Bloc -- 19 - Y
9. Union Party -- 16
10. Center Party -- 14
11. United Ukraine -- 22 (supports a multidirectional foreign policy
12. Democratic Initiatives -- 13
13. Democratic Ukraine -- 14 Volodymyr Horbulin? (clear pro-Western orientation?
14. Independent MPs -- 41

I can't identify a lot of support for Yushchenko anywhere - particularly with 'Our Ukraine' being taken over by Pynzenyk.

It would be VERY nice if you can add the party leadership to the list too. That seems to change faster than I can keep up from the sources available. 8^)

Posted by: Ron C at janvier 21, 2005 04:53 PM

Being able to open up the comments to full screen is missing! Booo... 8^)

Posted by: Ron C at janvier 21, 2005 04:56 PM

Yup, we most definitely need more clarity on these parties.
As it stands now, it's a fractured blur.

Please help us with some background, individual or collective.

Posted by: RW Brice at janvier 21, 2005 08:00 PM

Well, as long as we are all posting our wish lists...

I'd sure like to know what the composition looked like before the Orange Revolution. I might be able to find the composition after the 2002 elections at Adam Carr's or Erik Herron's sites, but the problem is that labels have changed.

As far as there not being a lot of Yushchenko allies on the roster, I actually think that is less troublesome than it might at first appear. These folks were all elected under vastly different (pre-revolutionary) circumstances, in 2002. As Discoshaman has pointed out many times, those who are drifting over to Yushchenko are opprtunists.

In a sense, then, greater clarity of political alliances is matintained if Yushchenko does NOT have a majority in parliament. As long as he does not have an absolutely opposed majority, which he does not--not if the "opportunistic" label really applies to so many in the current parliament.

The Ukrainian presidency is strong enough to do quite a lot without a pro-president majority (again, as long as there is not a fully obstructionist majority). Those powers go away only in September under the recent reforms (assuming I understand correctly). By then we will be in campaign mode.

The chances of a decisive 2006 victory for pro-Yushchenko parties are improved if the interim period has shown how necessary it is for a full overhaul of parliament before the majority will, as reflected in the events of late 2004, can be reflected. Besides, in the meantime, the check afforded by a not-too-sympathetic parliament is probably a good thing for placating the east.

Now, one more thing for the wish list. :-) Is there any way we can get a fairly detailed description of how the new proportional electoral system for 2006 will work? it was on this blog--and nowhere else--that I learned that getting rid of the current "mixed" system was part of the late-2004 agreement, but I long for more details.

Posted by: Matt S at janvier 21, 2005 08:51 PM

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