There are some definite silver linings for Republicans. Here are a few:
Kerry will be a weak president -- Kerry is a Senate back-bencher with a liberal, but amazingly picayune record of legislative non-achievment. He has no agenda, which is why his campaign has been nothing but attacks on Bush and invoking his 4 months of Vietnam service. He'll be faced by a solidly Republican Senate and House. He'll have no honeymoon period to speak of, given the bad blood his underhanded campaign tactics have engendered among the Rs. Good luck, Frenchie.
Kerry will quickly alienate his base -- People aren't voting FOR Kerry, but against Bush. The ambivalence is palpable in most of the endorsements Kerry has picked up. The Dem base chose him because he was electable, not because he was particularly palatable. Watch how fast they turn on him when they realize that the anti-war president they thought they were electing does almost nothing discernably different from Bush in the War on Terror, particularly in Iraq. He'll be less effectual than Bush, but that will be out of incompetence, not deliberation. Given the impression of weakness the mainstream of America has of Kerry, he can't AFFORD to pull out troops or scale back the war in Iraq. Near-instant buyer's remorse.
This will keep down future Democratic turnout. He'll thus need to tack Left to shore up his base for the mid-term elections. This won't endear him to the other 80% of the American people.
Kerry will be instantly unpopular with the American people -- He'll be going into office with off-the-chart personal negatives. And unlike Bush, Clinton or Reagan, he has zero personal charm to help alleviate them. Try imagining the American people warming to Kerry. The secret to Bush's survival was resolutely high personals, which helped keep him going even when job approval numbers dipped. Kerry has no similar ace in the hole.
Kerry will have a riled Republican base to deal with -- given the slew of dirty tricks his campaign has pulled, along with its media surrogates, Kerry will be in the political crosshairs of Republican activists from day one. And he'll be facing grassroots organization and alternative media of a degree Clinton never experienced. If the race is close, multiply the Republican sense of grievance by two. I say this because of the Banana Republic levels of fraud the Dem activists are pulling in places like PA, OH, FL, SD and elsewhere. The impression of a stolen election will be unassailable.
Kerry will disenchant the Mushy Middle -- when they realize he was completely talking out his hat about bringing in the UN and Europe. People dumb enough to believe he could convince France, Germany and Belgium to first find a credible military force, and then deploy it to the Gulf shouldn't be voting in the first place. But if they do, they deserve to be disappointed. That won't stop them from taking their disillusionment out on Kerry's approval numbers.
All said, a one-term Kerry could queer Hillary's chances in 2008. It could also help complete the voter re-alignment that began in the 60's, and ensure long-term Republican majority status.
Posted by Discoshaman at novembre 2, 2004 08:04 PM | TrackBack