I said the other day that if Bush doesn't win a second term, the post-mortem would be neglect of his base. OpinionJournal has news today that Judge Roy Moore is flirting with the idea of an independent bid. A Moore candidacy would be formidable if backed by the Constitution Party. Even matching Nader's 2000 showing, he'd likely elect John Kerry.
If Moore does run, and if he spoils the race, Bush and the Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves. Their fiscal irresponsibility has tarnished conservatism's reputation, and justifiably angered the base. I'll be voting Bush in 2004. But there are undoubtedly others who will not, unless Bush gets busy earning their votes.
Posted by Discoshaman at février 3, 2004 12:22 AM | TrackBack
Actually, as Ralph was so fond of pointing out to us, Gore lost about 12x as many votes from Democratic moderates who broke for Bush as he did fringe-ies who broke for Nader. Gore's problem was not being insufficiently liberal, it was being insufficiently moderate.
The same general logic applies for Bush, I think: I'm not as familiar with the Constitution Party as I am with the Greens, but I'm guessing they're more conservative than the Republican Party as a whole. The marginal number of conservative voters they're fighting for is presumably much, much smaller than the number of moderates Bush is trying to woo... so it might end up that no harm's done.
However, if there becomes a widespread perception that Bush is losing his base, that's a whole different story...
Posted by: Nick at février 3, 2004 05:24 AMIf Moore does this, I think he's misguided. If he spoils the election for Bush, then it will show that a new litmus test has been added to conservative support of Republicans, that of limited government. I think I might stop listening to the news for the remainder of the year if Bush lost over a Moore candidate. I may do the same, if Hillary wins in 2008 b/c her opposition is a group of Bob Dole clones.
Posted by: raindream at février 3, 2004 09:51 PMIt's Roy Moore.
Posted by: Mr. Correction at février 3, 2004 11:14 PMActually, I live in Judge Roy Moore's hometown of Gadsden, Alabama. I don't think Judge Moore is that stupid to really consider a run for the office of POTUS (President Of The United States).
However, if you combine the VAST expansion of government with recent moves to weaken our security AND our job base (illegal immigration amnesty - I don't care WHAT Bush is calling it.... its AMNESTY) with the fact that he has not worked to BUILD on his relationship with his base, but, rather to CORRUPT it... and THAT is a shame!
I hope and pray Judge Roy Moore doesn't do what this post suggests... I don't think he would be willing to sacrifice Bush's candicacy and allow ANY Democratic candidate have a free run to the White House.
Posted by: BrotherPhil at février 4, 2004 08:37 AMIf the Base doesn't make it clear to Bush that it will not abide with his departures from Conservatism then Bush has earned his Moore candidacy.
Run, Roy, Run,
Bret
Posted by: Bret L. McAtee at février 5, 2004 02:09 AMFiscal irresponsibility is the least of Bush's problems with his Christian base, if they'd snap out of their GOP coma. Why do Christians continue to support a polytheist pseudo-Christian? Before you attack me, evaluate the words he's used over and over again with reference to Jews, Muslims, and {drumroll please} Hindus (!):
But it requires a willingness to understand the origin of miracle. Miracles happen as a result of the love of the Almighty, professed, by the way, taught, by the way, by religions from all walks of life, whether it be Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu -- people who have heard that universal call to love a neighbor just like you'd like to be loved yourself, and then surround someone who hurts with love. Love is powerful. Love is soul-changing. Love doesn't happen because of government; love happens because of the inspiration of something greater than government. That's what we're here to talk about -- programs based upon faith. ~ G.W. Bush
Yeah, I know. It's just politics. Yep, he's got to win that Hindu (!) base out there. C'mon.
Posted by: Jon Luker at février 5, 2004 04:23 AM