I was really hoping for a Dean loss in Iowa, for a couple of reasons. One, because he represents an atavistic and destructive force in our body politic. Secondly, and more partisanly, because it muddles the Democratic field. With the current front-loaded primary system, it could have been easy for him to roll straight through to victory -- most people were predicting it. Instead we now have a 4-way race with no clear front-runner. The longer this drags the more poisonous it'll become, and the more battered the eventual victor. It also allows Bush to keep out of things that much longer.
Robert Moran adds another element -- the proportional delegate system of the Dems. The Rs have winner-take-all, but Dems receive delegates according to their percentage of the vote. This makes it even more difficult in a 4-way race to get your majority.
I'll belly up to the bar in a few days and post my New Hampshire predictions. Be sure also to check out , Blackfive, and Anti-Climacus for more political prognostication.
Posted by Discoshaman at janvier 22, 2004 12:11 AM | TrackBack