Ukraine has a declining population, and whenever I go out with my four boys we're instantly objects of curiousity. Today I tried to imagine how much stranger they would seem in China, given her One Child Policy.
And for the first time I realized what a fascinating sociological experiment this policy really is. Obviously much of it is a moral atrocity, but setting that aside a moment, on another level it's morbidly interesting. First you take a society which has evolved with glacial slowness over millenia. Then subject it to a World War followed by a Revolution. Add in forced urbanization and industrialization of a formerly agricultural society.
Further, as an agricultural society it's always had large families that live in close geographic proximity. Extended family has been very important.
In only a couple of decades they have, by fiat, gone to a one child per couple rule. In other words, they now have a society without uncles, without aunts, without cousins, nephews or nieces. Civilizations are organic entities. It'll be interesting to see how this experiment ultimately shocks the system, and what unintended consequences eventually result.
Social engineering is almost always doomed to failure, because it flies so radically in the face of human nature. The failure is only magnified when attempted on such a grand scale. China of all places should know this, since it was Mao's push for large families during the Cultural Revolution that helped overpopulate them.
Some effects are already apparent-- the pampered "Imperial Children" that result from being the only child in increasingly wealthy families. There's also the small matter of 119 male children being born for every 100 females, which will make for some lonely guys come prom night. But things get REALLY hairy in about 40 years, when about 45% of their population (about 400 million people by then) will be over 60 years of age. Try keeping your social security system in the black then.
Which means that China will end up being a pioneer not only in ingenious means of eliminating inconvenient children, but will use this same prowess in the culling of excess retirees. One wonders what the Chinese characters for "Hemlock Society" and "Officially mandated assisted-suicide" will look like...
Posted by Discoshaman at juin 14, 2003 04:12 AM | TrackBack
". . .whenever I go out with my four boys we're instantly objects of curiousity. . ."
I can't tell you how content and satisfied I am that you have been my husband and that you are the father of our four boys--and made us objects of curiousity.
I love you, sweetheart. Happy Father's Day!
Posted by: the Duchess at juin 15, 2003 07:15 PM